• A Michigan State University study reveals the percentage of U.S. childfree adults nearly doubled from 13.8% in 2002 to 29.4% in 2022.
• The study highlights a decline in non-parents planning to have children, dropping from 78% in 2002 to 59% in 2022.
• Researchers explore shifting family dynamics, noting the rise in childfree adults aligns with declining U.S. birth rates and changing societal priorities.

A new study led by researchers at Michigan State University has revealed a significant increase in the number of childfree adults in the United States over the last two decades. The findings, based on 20 years of data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), show that the percentage of non-parents aged 15 to 44 who identify as childfree has more than doubled—from 13.8% in 2002 to 29.4% in 2022.

Analyzing Two Decades of Data

The NSFG, one of the most comprehensive sources on family demographics in the United States, includes data from nearly 84,000 respondents under the age of 45. Researchers categorized participants into six groups: childfree, biologically childless, socially childless, not yet parents, ambivalent, and undecided. The study particularly focused on childfree adults, defined as individuals who do not have and do not want children.

Co-author Zachary Neal explained to Fox Local that the research team began exploring the childfree population after noticing a gap in large-scale, quantitative studies on the topic. Previous studies relied heavily on interviews with small groups, providing limited insight into trends over time or across regions.

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“Our earlier research in Michigan suggested that roughly 20% of adults in the state are childfree,” Neal said. “This study confirms that the trend extends nationwide, with a growing number of Americans choosing not to have children.”

Decline in Plans for Parenthood

The study also found a notable decline in the percentage of non-parents planning to have children. In 2002, 78% of non-parents expressed an intention to become parents in the future, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 59%. Meanwhile, the proportion of childless individuals—those who want children but are unable to have them—remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 32% to 37%.

Neal noted that advancements in fertility treatments, such as IVF, have not significantly changed the prevalence of childlessness. “It was surprising to see that despite discussions around fertility solutions, childlessness remains rare and relatively unchanged in recent decades,” he said.

Context: Fertility Trends in the U.S.

The study aligns with broader trends showing a long-term decline in U.S. birth rates. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 3.6 million babies were born in 2023, marking the lowest number of annual births since 1979. While births increased slightly by 1% in 2024 to 3.62 million, experts caution against interpreting this as a reversal of the overall decline.

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Hans-Peter Kohler, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Associated Press earlier this year that the uptick is likely a temporary fluctuation. “I’d be hesitant to see this as an indicator of a long-term shift,” Kohler said.

The average age of first-time mothers in the U.S. has also risen steadily, reaching 27.5 years, compared to 21.5 years in the early 1970s. Experts attribute this change to women prioritizing education and careers before starting families. Birth rates have declined among teenagers and younger women while increasing for women in their 30s and 40s.

Broader Implications and Government Response

As more Americans opt for smaller families or no children at all, concerns about population growth have emerged in some circles. Population experts argue, however, that immigration may offset the impact of declining fertility rates on overall growth. Neal emphasized that being childfree is an increasingly common and valid choice, adding, “We hope this research helps those still deciding about parenthood feel more confident in their decisions.”

In response to the decline in birth rates, President Donald Trump has reportedly endorsed measures aimed at encouraging Americans to have more children. According to The New York Times, one proposal includes a $5,000 “baby bonus” for every child born, which Trump described as “a good idea.”

What’s Next?

The Michigan State University research team is now expanding their work to explore regional variations in childfree populations across the United States, as well as comparing the social networks of parents and childfree adults. They are also examining trends in developing countries to understand global shifts in family planning preferences.

The study’s findings highlight the changing dynamics of family formation in the U.S. and raise important questions about how society and policymakers will adapt to these evolving trends.

Share your thoughts: Is the rise in childfree adults surprising? What might this mean for the future? Let us know in the comments below.

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