• U.S. intelligence reports suggest Pakistan is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S., potentially shifting global power dynamics and straining U.S.-Pakistan relations. This development raises concerns over nuclear proliferation and could lead to heightened tensions in South Asia and beyond.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — U.S. intelligence has concluded that Pakistan is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching U.S. soil, a move that could significantly alter global power dynamics and heighten tensions between Washington and Islamabad. This discovery raises concerns over the potential militarization of U.S.-Pakistan relations, traditionally framed around counterterrorism and regional security.

Pakistan’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions

The revelation, reported by Foreign Affairs, suggests Pakistan’s nuclear strategy may now aim to deter not just regional rival India but also the United States. According to nuclear security experts Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, “If Pakistan acquires an ICBM, Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary.” This would place Pakistan in a group of nations—Russia, China, and North Korea—with the ability to directly threaten the U.S. homeland.

Islamabad maintains that its nuclear program is focused solely on countering threats from India. However, sources indicate that Pakistan may view an ICBM deterrent as insurance against potential U.S. intervention in South Asia, particularly in scenarios involving heightened India-Pakistan tensions.

U.S. Policy Implications

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The Biden administration, already navigating strained relations with Pakistan over Afghanistan and counterterrorism, could face new challenges if these missile developments are confirmed. “This complicates an already fragile relationship,” said one Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Aides close to President Trump have previously criticized Pakistan’s military ambitions, suggesting the administration might pursue tighter sanctions or diplomatic pressure if ICBM capabilities are verified.

A Volatile Global Landscape

This development comes amid what experts describe as a global “Category 5 hurricane” of nuclear threats, with arms control agreements collapsing and deterrence frameworks eroding. For the U.S., Pakistan’s potential ICBM capability underscores the urgency of addressing nuclear proliferation in a destabilized security environment.

What’s Next?

Congressional lawmakers are likely to demand classified briefings and may explore legislative options to recalibrate U.S. military aid to Pakistan. Meanwhile, regional analysts warn that this could prompt an arms race in South Asia, further complicating U.S. foreign policy. Share your thoughts below and join the conversation.

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