- Xi Jinping’s Cold War strategy against the U.S. borrows lessons from the Soviet Union’s collapse, emphasizing economic self-reliance, global alignment, and centralized control. This approach aims to counter American influence while avoiding isolation, reshaping China’s position as a global superpower.
BEIJING (TDR) — China’s leader Xi Jinping has launched a calculated Cold War strategy aimed at countering the United States’ global dominance. Informed by the Soviet Union’s collapse, Xi is methodically reshaping China’s policies to resist American pressure while fortifying its economic and geopolitical standing. This strategic pivot signals an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry with far-reaching global implications.
Xi’s Lessons from the Soviet Union’s Fall
Xi Jinping has long studied the collapse of the Soviet Union as a cautionary tale. In a 2013 speech to senior Communist Party officials, Xi emphasized that the Soviet Union’s ideological decay and loss of political control were key to its downfall. “Why did the Communist Party of the Soviet Union fall apart?” Xi asked. “An important reason is that in the ideological domain, competition is fierce.” His takeaway: the Chinese Communist Party’s authority must remain unchallengeable.
Unlike the Soviet Union, which heavily prioritized energy and weapons industries at the expense of broader economic development, Xi’s strategy focuses on diversifying China’s economy. Known as “dual circulation,” this policy aims to produce domestically what China needs while continuing to export goods to global markets. According to Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College, “Strategic patience, conservation of resources, and tactical flexibility will all be critical in achieving a balance between growth and global competition.”
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China’s official defense budget has grown at a steady rate of 7.2% annually over the past three years, demonstrating a commitment to military modernization without plunging into an arms race with the U.S. While this spending exceeds China’s GDP growth rate, it remains below 1.5% of GDP, far less than what the U.S. allocates to its military.
Avoiding Isolation Through “Multialignment”
A key pillar of Xi’s strategy is avoiding the Soviet Union’s geopolitical isolation. Beijing is actively undermining U.S. alliances while promoting “multialignment,” encouraging countries to engage with multiple global powers rather than siding exclusively with Washington. This approach ensures that China remains integrated into the global economy while forging closer ties with developing nations.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Xi and Vladimir Putin declared a partnership with “no limits.” However, Xi has taken care to distinguish China’s global role from that of a Soviet-style Eastern bloc power. By overhauling the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi aims to position Chinese financing as more sustainable for recipient countries, countering criticism of “debt trap diplomacy” in nations like Sri Lanka and Zambia.
“This isn’t about returning to a Cold War-era political bloc,” said Evan Medeiros, a former Obama administration national security official. “China is positioning itself as a long-term competitor to the U.S. without falling into the Soviet model of isolation.”
Economic Resilience and U.S. Trade Relations
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The U.S.-China trade war, initiated during President Trump’s administration, marked a turning point in Beijing’s strategy. Trump’s tariffs and economic policies disrupted China’s export-driven growth model, prompting Xi to accelerate plans for economic resilience. The “dual circulation” policy, introduced in 2020, was designed to insulate China from external shocks, particularly those stemming from American trade restrictions and technological decoupling.
China’s trade surplus, which reached $877.6 billion in 2022, highlights its ability to leverage global markets despite U.S. efforts to curb its economic influence. Yet, Xi’s government is equally focused on reducing dependencies on foreign technology, investing heavily in domestic semiconductor production and renewable energy technologies.
“The trade war under President Trump caught Beijing off guard,” said one policy analyst in Beijing. “Now, China is playing the long game, ensuring its economy can withstand future U.S. pressure.”
Centralized Control: A Critical Pillar of Xi’s Strategy
Beyond economic and geopolitical considerations, Xi’s Cold War strategy heavily relies on maintaining centralized Communist Party control. Strengthening ideological loyalty within the party and society has been a cornerstone of his leadership. From tighter media censorship to heightened surveillance, Xi’s government is tightening its grip to prevent dissent and ensure stability.
Xi commissioned a documentary on the Soviet Union’s collapse that portrayed Mikhail Gorbachev as a failure who abandoned the Communist Party. This underscores the ideological focus of his governance, framing loyalty to the party as essential to China’s survival in its competition with the U.S.
The Political Consequences of a Prolonged Rivalry
As U.S.-China tensions escalate, Xi’s strategy poses significant challenges for American policymakers. Efforts to curb China’s influence through trade restrictions, military alliances, and technological decoupling have been met with equal determination from Beijing. While China is unlikely to abandon its integration with global markets, its pivot toward self-reliance suggests a long-term competition with the U.S. that could shape the global order for decades.
With both nations locked in a protracted power struggle, the question remains: Can the U.S. effectively counter China’s calculated strategy without overextending its resources or compromising democratic values?
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