• Democrat Catelin Drey flipped an open Iowa Senate seat, breaking the GOP supermajority.
• Her win follows a string of Democratic special election upsets in Republican-leaning districts.
• The victory adds leverage for Democrats to block partisan confirmations in Des Moines.

DES MOINES, Iowa (TDR) — Democrat Catelin Drey has flipped a GOP-held Iowa state Senate seat, securing a surprise victory that ends Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority and adds to a string of Democratic special election wins in 2025.

Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch in the race to replace the late state Sen. Rocky De Witt, who passed away from cancer in June. The seat, which had backed President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024, was viewed as a long shot — but Democrats poured in volunteers and resources, seeing it as a chance to puncture GOP dominance.

Breaking the Supermajority

Drey’s win shifts the chamber balance to 33 Republicans and 17 Democrats, stripping the GOP of its two-thirds control. That matters: nominees from the governor now cannot be confirmed on a pure party-line vote, forcing Republicans to seek bipartisan support.

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The outcome underscores how special elections have become testing grounds for voter sentiment in Trump’s second term. The Democratic National Committee dispatched 30,000 volunteers for phone banks, texts, and door-knocking.

“Any Republican pushing Trump’s unpopular, extreme agenda has no place governing on behalf of Iowa families,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said, calling the victory proof that “when Democrats organize everywhere, we win everywhere.”

A Broader Trend

This was Democrats’ second Iowa Senate pickup this year, following a January win in a Trump +20 district. In March, Democrats stunned observers by flipping a Pennsylvania seat that had long leaned red.

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Political strategists note Democrats have outperformed expectations in nearly every legislative contest this year. Still, skeptics warn against over-interpreting small special elections, given turnout and local factors.

But Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said the trend cannot be ignored. “This is a flashing warning to Trump and the GOP,” she said. “Voters are rejecting the failing MAGA agenda.”

The National Picture

The win provides Democrats with a morale boost amid grim national polls showing their party brand at historic lows. Approval ratings for President Trump remain strong among Republicans, but swing voters have expressed fatigue with partisan battles.

For Democrats, every special election has been framed as evidence that grassroots organizing can counter GOP structural advantages. The DNC argues that building local benches in small towns and rural counties is the only way back from their losses in 2024.

What Comes Next

Republicans in Iowa downplayed the defeat, noting that statewide they remain firmly in control. But Drey’s victory complicates their ability to push through judicial and executive nominees without compromise.

Democrats say the victory proves their state-level strategy is working. As Cory Booker and others have warned, Trump’s grip on federal power requires strong counterweights in statehouses.

With more special elections on the horizon, Democrats are seizing every opportunity to frame 2025 as a year of quiet resistance to Trump’s agenda.

Is this a blip, or the start of a realignment against Trump at the state level?

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