• PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows 55 percent would vote Democratic versus 41 percent Republican
• Fourteen-point advantage matches party’s position at same point in Trump’s first term
• Independents favor Democrats by 33-point margin as Trump approval hits 39 percent

WASHINGTON, D.C. (TDR) — Democrats hold a commanding 14-point lead over Republicans on the congressional ballot, their largest advantage since November 2017, according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released Tuesday that signals major warning signs for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The survey of 1,443 adults conducted November 10-13 found 55 percent would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress if elections were held today, compared to 41 percent who would choose a Republican. The margin represents a dramatic shift from a year ago when the parties were tied on the congressional ballot just before the 2024 elections.

The parallel to Trump’s first term is striking. Democrats held a similar advantage at the same point in 2017 and went on to win 40 seats in the 2018 midterm elections, their largest House gain since the post-Watergate 1974 elections. That victory gave Democrats control of the chamber and enabled tougher oversight of the Trump administration.

Independents drive Democratic advantage

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The poll found independents chose Democrats by a 33-point margin, with 61 percent saying they would vote for a Democratic candidate compared to 28 percent for a Republican. The shift among unaffiliated voters represents a major reversal from recent elections and historically signals strong performance for Democrats in upcoming midterms.

“There are a lot of similarities” to 2018, Sen. Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico, who chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during Trump’s first midterm cycle, told reporters earlier this year. The 2018 Democratic freshman class featured record numbers of women and candidates with national security backgrounds who flipped suburban districts.

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said the Trump administration has been “out of step with where the public is” on issues of affordability. The president’s focus on reducing crime, ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and eliminating drug trafficking “don’t resonate” with voters concerned about daily costs.

Trump approval hits new low

President Donald Trump‘s approval rating stood at 39 percent in the poll, the lowest of his second term and matching levels seen just after the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack. Among independents, Trump received just a 24 percent approval rating.

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Nearly half of respondents, 48 percent, said they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing, the highest strong disapproval rating of his second term. The president has received low ratings for his handling of the economy and foreign policy, and voters believe he has gone too far on immigration enforcement.

A clear majority, 57 percent, said lowering prices should be Trump’s top priority, with majorities of Democrats and independents and a plurality of Republicans holding that view. Controlling immigration, a major focus of Trump’s second term, came in a distant second, 41 percentage points behind affordability concerns.

“I don’t think rent prices or food prices are at the forefront like they should be,” said Nicole Stokes of Dallas, Texas, who participated in the poll and voted for Trump in 2024. “The American people, it’s our pockets that are getting ripped apart to fund things.”

Government shutdown compounds GOP troubles

The poll found 60 percent of Americans blame congressional Republicans or Trump for the recent government shutdown, adding to the party’s political challenges. The shutdown, which lasted several weeks, delayed key economic indicators and disrupted government services.

Trump has acknowledged on multiple occasions during his second term that campaign advisers told him prices were voters’ most important issue, though he felt immigration was more critical. The poll sends a clear message that voters prioritize cost of living over border security.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democrats are positioning themselves to capitalize on economic concerns ahead of the 2026 midterms, when they hope to win back both the House and Senate. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers.

Historical context favors Democrats

The 2018 midterm elections saw Democrats gain a net 40 seats with voter turnout of 50.3 percent, the highest for a midterm in more than a century. Democrats won the national House popular vote by 8.6 percentage points, one of the largest margins by either party since 1992.

The Democratic victory was powered largely by suburban voters, particularly women, who rejected Trump’s policies and rhetoric. The 2018 freshman class included progressive firebrands like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York but shifted the balance of power through centrist candidates who carried suburban and exurban districts.

Democrats also gained seven governorships in 2018, including victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas. This year’s off-year elections saw Democrats win gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey by focusing campaigns on affordability and opposition to Trump’s policies.

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll surveyed 1,291 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for Democrats is 5.3 percentage points and for Republicans and independents is 5.6 percentage points.

Will Democrats successfully replicate their 2018 midterm performance in 2026?

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