• Centrist Democrats signal agreement possible within days as bipartisan talks intensify in Capitol basement
  • Progressive faction warns reopening government without health care concession from Trump would be mistake
  • Eight moderate senators emerge as key players in potential deal to end 35-day shutdown

WASHINGTON, D.C. (TDR) — Senate Democrats are sharply divided over whether Republicans have offered enough to reach a deal to end the government shutdown this week, with centrist members signaling progress while progressives warn against capitulating without concrete commitments from President Donald Trump on health care subsidies.

Several moderate Democrats are privately telling their Republican colleagues that an agreement could be reached in the next few days, according to sources familiar with the closely held conversations. But other Senate Democrats caution that reopening the government without a real concession from Trump on extending expiring health insurance premium subsidies would be a significant strategic mistake.

Appropriations progress, health care stalemate

Democrats are making headway with Republicans on an agreement to restore the regular appropriations process, a strong Democratic priority that would provide more time for negotiating full-year spending bills. However, the two sides have made little progress on rising health care costs, which remains the biggest sticking point.

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At least eight moderate Senate Democrats are meeting in hopes of finding a compromise to end the monthlong government shutdown, including Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).

The group huddled in the Capitol basement during votes Thursday in an attempt to position themselves to end the shutdown before the scheduled Veterans Day recess. “Bipartisan conversations are continuing, and that’s a good sign,” Ossoff told reporters.

Trump’s engagement remains uncertain

Senate Republican negotiators said Monday that talks could be on the cusp of a breakthrough, but centrist Democrats warn that Trump’s failure to show serious interest in the health care issue raises red flags about any potential agreement’s durability.

“We need strong assurances from the GOP before voting to reopen the government.”

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) indicated Monday he was looking for a longer time frame for a continuing resolution, likely extending into January rather than the House-passed bill’s Nov. 21 deadline. Senate Republicans need at least eight votes from Democrats to reopen the government, as they hold a 53-47 majority but require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.

So far, only three members of the Democratic caucus have consistently voted to advance the House-passed bill: Senators John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), and Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

Political pressure mounts

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) blasted Trump on Monday for not acknowledging the financial burdens placed on millions of Americans from rising health care costs, which will spike after enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act expire at year’s end.

“If you watched Donald Trump this weekend on ’60 Minutes,’ you saw a president utterly dismissive of the pain his policies have caused working people,” Schumer said on the Senate floor.

A recent survey found voters prefer Democrats over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress by eight points, 50% to 42%, the largest lead on the generic ballot since 2018. The finding bolsters Schumer’s argument that shutting down the government over health care costs is a political winner for Democrats.

Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal told reporters there “seems to be some indication of a thaw,” but questioned the value of backing down without meaningful concessions. “What have we done to endure all of this inconvenience and some pain if we don’t accomplish something for the American people?” he asked.

The shutdown, now in its 35th day, has tied the record for the longest government closure in U.S. history, matching the duration of the 2018-19 shutdown that also occurred during Trump’s presidency.

Should Democrats reopen the government without securing health care concessions, or continue holding out for concrete commitments?

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