• Pentagon chief warns China’s arsenal could neutralize American naval power projection in opening moments of conflict
• Secret defense guidance identifies Taiwan invasion as the sole animating scenario for US military planning
• War games consistently show devastating losses for American forces in simulated Pacific confrontations

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — A stark warning from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has thrust America’s military vulnerabilities into the spotlight, revealing that Chinese hypersonic missiles could potentially sink the entire US aircraft carrier fleet within the first 20 minutes of a Taiwan conflict.

Carrier-Killer Arsenal Poses Existential Threat

The assessment, drawn from Hegseth’s November interview on “The Shawn Ryan Show” before assuming his Pentagon role, paints a troubling picture of American power projection capabilities. The defense secretary stated that if America’s strategic foundation rests on aircraft carriers, China has developed weapons specifically designed to eliminate that advantage almost instantly.

“China is building an army specifically designed to destroy the United States of America,” Hegseth declared during the interview, which has received renewed attention following his appointment.

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The People’s Liberation Army has deployed an array of anti-ship ballistic missiles that defense analysts describe as “carrier-killers.” The DF-21D, DF-26B, and DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle form the core of Beijing’s anti-access strategy, capable of striking American vessels from ranges exceeding 1,500 kilometers while traveling at speeds beyond Mach 10.

War Games Reveal Consistent American Defeats

Perhaps most alarming is Hegseth’s admission regarding Pentagon war simulations. Over the past decade, the US military has maintained what he called a “perfect record” in war games against Chinese forces—losing every engagement. These simulations have consistently demonstrated that American forces would struggle to prevent a successful invasion of Taiwan.

A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis that ran 24 iterations of a Chinese amphibious invasion scenario found that even in the most favorable outcomes, the United States and Japan would lose 43 ships, including two aircraft carriers, along with 449 combat aircraft and thousands of service members.

“The thing we see across all the wargames is that there are major losses on all sides,” noted Becca Wasser, head of the gaming lab at the Center for a New American Security. “And the impact of that on our society is quite devastating.”

Secret Pentagon Guidance Reorients Military Priorities

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A classified document distributed throughout the Department of Defense in March 2025 confirms the administration’s recognition of these threats. The Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance, signed by Hegseth and marked “secret/no foreign national,” identifies China as the Pentagon’s “sole pacing threat” and designates preventing Taiwan’s seizure as the exclusive priority scenario for military planning.

The guidance directs American forces to “assume risk in other theaters” while pressuring European and Asian allies to shoulder greater defense burdens against Russia, North Korea, and Iran. This represents an extraordinary shift in American military doctrine, effectively reorganizing the entire defense architecture around a single potential conflict.

Hypersonic Technology Gap Widens

According to the Department of Defense’s December 2024 China Military Power Report, Beijing possesses the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal. The PLA’s deployment of these weapons continues to transform its missile force capabilities, with systems designed specifically to strike foreign military bases and fleets throughout the Western Pacific.

Chinese researchers recently published results of a war game simulation showing 24 hypersonic missiles sinking the USS Gerald Ford supercarrier and its five escorts. The simulation assumed satellite targeting would be unavailable and relied solely on sea-based surveillance—suggesting even degraded Chinese capabilities could prove devastating.

Pentagon Scrambles for Countermeasures

The US military is pursuing several defensive technologies, including laser weapons and hypersonic interceptors, though experts acknowledge these systems remain years from operational deployment. The fiscal year 2025 Pentagon budget requested $6.9 billion for hypersonic missile research, reflecting the urgency of closing the capability gap.

Defense analysts note that while the threat to American carriers is genuine, it may not represent an automatic death sentence. The Navy continues upgrading its combat systems, and disrupting China’s targeting “kill chain” could degrade missile effectiveness. However, the compressed reaction time against hypersonic weapons—sometimes measured in seconds—poses unprecedented challenges for existing defensive systems.

Will America’s technological innovation outpace China’s missile advancement before a potential Taiwan crisis erupts?

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