• Federal workforce fell by approximately 270,000 positions from January to November, largest peacetime reduction on record
• Federal spending rose from $7.135 trillion to $7.558 trillion as of December 19, marking nearly 6% increase
• Cato Institute analysis finds DOGE had no noticeable effect on spending trajectory despite workforce reductions

WASHINGTON (TDR) — Elon Musk‘s Department of Government Efficiency delivered the largest peacetime reduction in federal employment on record but failed to achieve its central goal of cutting government spending, according to year-end analyses.

The federal workforce fell by approximately 9% in 2025, dropping from 3.015 million employees in January to 2.744 million by November—a reduction of more than 270,000 positions. Meanwhile, federal outlays rose from $7.135 trillion to $7.558 trillion as of December 19, marking a nearly 6% increase, according to the Brookings Institution‘s Hamilton Project tracking tool.

DOGE Had No Effect on Spending Trajectory

DOGE had no noticeable effect on the trajectory of spending, the Cato Institute offered in its analysis of the agency’s 2025 results. But it did help engineer the largest peacetime workforce reduction on record.

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The report by Cato, a think tank that promotes limited government, found that the federal government spent $7.6 trillion in the first 11 months of the 2025 calendar year. This number is roughly $248 billion higher than the same time last year. This also exceeds former President Biden‘s spending in 2023, 2022 and 2021, all between $6.27 and $6.5 trillion.

The culprit is that most federal spending is for entitlement programs, which were high due to structural reasons and policy autopilot. Only Congress has the authority to cut these programs, not DOGE.

Musk’s Spending Cut Promises Fell Short

Musk began to sketch out DOGE in 2024 with a promise of at least $2 trillion in annual savings. That campaign trail pledge was later revised in 2025 down to $1 trillion and then again to $150 billion, according to Yahoo Finance analysis.

Musk had said he wanted to wield a chainsaw for bureaucracy to cut federal staffing during his time in Washington—even literally holding up the tool during an appearance at an event in February. He targeted a range of offices for cuts—from the US Agency for International Development to Social Security offices—in rapid-fire layoffs and other moves that consumed Washington in the early months of Trump‘s term before Musk’s abrupt departure at the end of May.

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The biggest drop in the federal workforce, exceeding 150,000, came in October as former federal workers accepted a deferred resignation offer that Musk had initiated earlier in the year.

Select Agencies Saw Significant Cuts

The Hamilton Project tool shows how far Musk fell short of his savings goals. The federal government surpassed 2024 spending levels on December 9, with three weeks to go in the year.

Yet a DOGE effect is clearly in evidence in select parts of the government. USAID spent over $30 billion in 2024, but as a standalone agency, it didn’t make it to November, when it was slashed and then folded into the State Department. The overall State Department is also on pace to spend almost $10 billion less this year than in 2024.

The Department of Education is another wing of the government that Trump has promised to eliminate completely. For the time being, it’s on pace to spend over $40 billion less in 2025. Regulators have also seen cuts. The Federal Communications Commission is on track to spend about one-third as much this year as it did in 2024.

Mandatory Spending Drives Overall Increases

The savings in those areas have been dwarfed by other increases—from the Department of Commerce to Homeland Security to Defense to Justice—where spending is up in 2025.

And what’s known as mandatory spending remains the primary driver of government spending. Social Security payments alone are set to be over $100 billion higher in 2025. Interest payments on the national debt will also be about $100 billion higher in 2025, with the national debt growing over $2 trillion since Trump was sworn in on January 20.

“DOGE failed to cut spending because most federal spending was for entitlement programs.”

DOGE can, however, claim success in its cuts to the federal workforce. It was able to reduce federal employment at the fastest pace since President Carter. It reduced federal employment by 9% in less than 10 months, cutting federal employment by 271,000.

Can workforce reductions alone achieve meaningful government reform when entitlement programs driving spending remain on autopilot beyond executive branch control?

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