• Coffee up nearly 19%, ground beef up 15% even as headline inflation cools
• Three-quarters of Americans say incomes aren’t keeping pace with rising costs
• Economists warn of persistent “affordability crisis” despite improving data

WASHINGTON, D.C. (TDR) — U.S. inflation slowed unexpectedly in November, but Americans who have watched grocery bills and utility costs climb for years aren’t celebrating.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that its consumer price index rose 2.7% from a year earlier — down from 3% in September. Yet for families still grappling with elevated prices for food, energy, and housing, the improving headline number offers little comfort.

Throughout 2025, about three-quarters of Americans said their incomes were not keeping pace with inflation, according to a CBS News poll. Views of the overall economy remain low, with just 32% saying economic conditions are good.

Numbers vs. Reality

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On paper, the data looks encouraging. Consumer prices had risen 3% in September, and forecasters expected November CPI to match that pace. Instead, both headline and core inflation came in well below projections.

The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% over 12 months — the lowest reading since March 2021. But the improving statistics don’t reflect what Americans experience at the register.

“Inflation did not suddenly improve a lot between September and November. Anyone who has been to the grocery store or paid a utility bill knows this.”

Data Distorted by Shutdown

Thursday’s report was the first inflation data since the federal government’s 43-day shutdown ended in mid-November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledged significant data collection challenges — two-thirds of CPI prices are gathered through in-person surveys that could not be conducted during October.

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The BLS could not calculate monthly inflation changes for most categories because October data was missing. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point last week but signaled caution, with Powell saying the Fed would rely more heavily on December’s data for future decisions.

Grocery Aisle Pain Persists

The disconnect between headline inflation and kitchen-table reality is stark. Coffee prices have climbed 18.8% from a year ago, and ground beef has risen 14.9%, according to the BLS data.

Energy prices surged 4.2% over the past 12 months. Food prices rose 2.6% annually, down from 3.1% in September, while shelter costs eased to 3% from 3.6% — but those categories had already spiked dramatically in 2022 and 2023.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the frustration at his December press conference.

“We hear loud and clear how people are experiencing really high costs. A lot of that is not the current rate of inflation. A lot of that is just embedded higher costs.”

Economists say President Trump‘s tariffs have contributed to elevated prices. In November, the administration cut levies on products including bananas and coffee to address consumer frustrations.

An Affordability Crisis

Powell said the best thing the Fed can do is restore inflation to its 2% target while maintaining a strong economy where real wages rise. But he acknowledged it will take years of wages outpacing inflation before Americans start feeling good about affordability.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, warned that while Americans should not brace for surging inflation, there is a growing risk of a persistent affordability crisis that improved headline numbers cannot solve.

With grocery staples still far more expensive than two years ago and wages struggling to keep pace, will slowing inflation ever translate into relief at the checkout counter?

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