• California’s combative governor captures 25% support in hypothetical Democratic primary matchup
• Young voters aged 18-34 now disapprove of Trump by margins exceeding 30 percentage points
• AOC dominates among youngest Democrats while Harris leads with Black voters

SACRAMENTO, CA (TDR) — California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as the early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to the latest Yale Youth Poll released this week. The undergraduate-led survey reveals a dramatic realignment among young voters who have turned sharply against President Donald Trump since his return to the White House.

Newsom Commands Seven-Point Lead Over Harris

The Fall 2025 Yale Youth Poll surveyed 3,426 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 1,706 respondents aged 18-34. Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, Newsom leads the hypothetical primary field with 25% support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris follows at 18%, with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York capturing 16% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%.

“I’d be lying otherwise. I’d just be lying, and I can’t do that.”

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That candid acknowledgment came from Newsom during an October interview with CBS News Sunday Morning when asked whether he would seriously consider a presidential campaign after the 2026 midterm elections. The governor, whose second term ends in January 2027 due to term limits, has positioned himself as the Democratic Party’s most visible antagonist to the Trump administration.

The polling data reveals striking demographic divisions within the Democratic coalition. Ocasio-Cortez dominates among voters under 35, commanding 32% support from that cohort. Newsom’s strength concentrates among older Democrats, male voters at 32%, white Democrats at 27%, and Hispanic Democrats at 27%. Harris maintains her strongest position with female Democrats at 24% and commands overwhelming support from Black Democrats at 47%.

Young Voters Abandon Trump in Historic Numbers

Perhaps more consequential than the Democratic horserace numbers is the precipitous decline in Trump’s standing among young Americans. The Yale survey documents a seismic shift from the organization’s Spring 2025 findings, when voters aged 18-21 narrowly approved of Trump’s job performance.

That approval has evaporated entirely. Voters aged 18-22 now disapprove of Trump by 30 percentage points. The disapproval margin widens to 34 points among 23-29 year-olds and reaches 36 points among those aged 30-34. This represents one of the sharpest generational reversals documented in modern polling.

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The collapse extends beyond presidential approval to congressional preferences. Democrats now lead the generic ballot by 15 points among 18-22 year-olds, 16 points among 23-29 year-olds, and 20 points among 30-34 year-olds. Republicans maintain a narrow 7-point advantage only among voters aged 45-64, while those 65 and older remain evenly split.

Economic Anxiety Drives Generational Discontent

The survey identifies economic concerns as the primary driver of young voter dissatisfaction. When asked to rank issues by importance, cost of living and affordability topped the list at 91% among voters aged 18-34. Democracy ranked second at 77%, followed by housing at 70%, free speech at 67%, and jobs at 67%.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the Republican-controlled Congress faces overwhelming opposition among young Americans. When presented with competing messages from elected officials of both parties, Democratic messaging proved more persuasive, winning 60% support among voters aged 18-34 compared to just 39% for Republican messaging.

“Young Americans are sending a clear message: the systems and institutions meant to support them no longer feel stable, fair, or responsive to this generation.”

That assessment came from John Della Volpe, Director of Polling at Harvard’s Institute of Politics, whose separate Fall 2025 survey found Trump’s approval among 18-29 year-olds at just 29%. The Harvard data corroborates the Yale findings on generational political alienation.

Newsom’s Combative Strategy Resonates With Base

Newsom’s rise in primary polling coincides with his aggressive opposition to Trump administration policies. The governor spearheaded California’s Proposition 50 redistricting initiative, framing it as a direct counter to Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas. He has challenged federal immigration enforcement operations in Los Angeles and filed legal action against Trump’s tariff policies.

The California governor has also adopted unconventional media tactics, using social media to mock Trump in the president’s own signature style. His all-caps posts imitating Trump’s Truth Social communications have generated substantial earned media coverage. Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons characterized Newsom’s position bluntly in recent interviews, saying the governor was not just talking about taking on Trump but actually winning confrontations against him.

Political observers note that Newsom’s approach appeals to a Democratic base hungry for confrontational leadership. The Yale poll finds that 45% of Democrats under 35 want their party to focus on energizing its base rather than moderating positions. This represents a meaningful shift from Spring 2025, when 59% of Democrats said the party should move left and 39% preferred moving to the center.

Republican Primary Shows Vance Dominance

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance commands the 2028 field with 51% support, followed distantly by Donald Trump Jr. at 8%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6%, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 5%.

However, the picture changes dramatically when Trump himself enters the hypothetical ballot. Despite constitutional term limits prohibiting a third presidential term, 50% of Republicans said they would support Trump in a 2028 primary where he could run, with Vance falling to just 19%. Notably, younger Republicans show far less enthusiasm for a Trump third term, with only 20% of GOP voters aged 18-22 supporting the scenario compared to majorities among voters over 45.

Broader Implications for 2028 Landscape

The Yale data suggests a potentially wide-open Democratic primary with distinct regional and demographic coalitions already forming. Newsom’s strength among older, male, and Hispanic Democrats positions him well in delegate-rich states. Ocasio-Cortez’s dominance among young voters could prove decisive if turnout patterns favor her coalition. Harris retains significant advantages with Black voters who remain essential to Democratic primary success.

The survey’s margin of error stands at plus or minus 1.7 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for the youth oversample. Fieldwork was conducted by Verasight from October 29 to November 11, 2025.

Will young voters’ sharp turn against Trump reshape the 2028 electoral landscape, or can Republicans rebuild their coalition before the next presidential contest?

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