• New Emerson College survey shows Talarico with 47% support compared to Crockett’s 38% among likely Democratic primary voters
• The results mark a stunning 17-point swing from December polling that gave Crockett an eight-point lead over her opponent
• Talarico dominates among Latino and white voters while Crockett maintains overwhelming support from Black Democrats

AUSTIN, Texas (TDR) — Texas State Representative James Talarico has surged ahead of US Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary race, leading by nine percentage points in new polling that shows dramatic shifts in voter preferences less than two months before the March 3 election.

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday found Talarico capturing 47% support among likely Democratic primary voters compared to 38% for Crockett, with 15% still undecided. The results represent a significant reversal from December polling by Texas Southern University that showed Crockett leading 51% to 43%.

The 17-point swing between the two surveys highlights the volatile nature of the race as both candidates compete for the chance to challenge the Republican nominee in November’s general election for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn.

Demographic Divide Shapes Primary Battle

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The Emerson poll reveals stark demographic differences in voter support between the Austin state representative and the Dallas congresswoman, with each candidate dominating specific constituencies within the Democratic coalition.

“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated in the survey’s release.

The polling data shows Talarico holding a commanding 34-point lead among Latino voters and a 29-point advantage with white Democrats. Meanwhile, Crockett secures overwhelming support from Black voters, who comprise a crucial portion of the Democratic primary electorate.

Gender dynamics also play a significant role in the race. Male voters break strongly for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women split nearly evenly between the two candidates at 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett, according to the survey.

Polling Methodology Comparison

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The contrasting results between December and January surveys raise questions about shifting voter sentiment as the primary approaches:

The Texas Tribune noted that the 17-point swing toward Talarico largely stemmed from his expanded lead with men, Latino voters and white voters, combined with Crockett’s narrower advantage among women and older Democratic voters.

Campaign Backgrounds Present Contrasts

Talarico, 34, is an eighth-generation Texan who served as a middle school teacher in San Antonio before entering politics. He was elected to the Texas House in 2018 at age 26, becoming the chamber’s youngest member, and has pursued a Master of Divinity degree while serving in the legislature.

The Austin Democrat has passed legislation capping insulin costs at $25 monthly in Texas and establishing programs to import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada. He was named one of Texas Monthly’s Top 10 Best Legislators and has refused to accept corporate PAC money throughout his political career.

“I’ve never taken anything for granted in life or politics, and this campaign is no exception,” former Congressman Colin Allred said in September when Talarico entered the race.

Crockett, 44, worked as a public defender and civil rights attorney before winning election to the Texas House in 2020. She succeeded retiring Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson in representing Texas’s 30th Congressional District in 2022.

The Dallas congresswoman gained national prominence for confrontational exchanges with Republican lawmakers, including a viral May 2024 clash with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. She spoke at the 2024 Democratic National Convention and serves as Freshman Leadership Representative in the House Democratic caucus.

“This is a single-digit race before any money has been spent,” a Talarico campaign spokesperson told Newsweek following the December polling.

Republican Primary Remains Fluid

The Emerson survey also found the Republican Senate primary locked in a tight three-way race that appears headed for a May runoff.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 27% support, followed closely by incumbent Senator Cornyn at 26% and US Representative Wesley Hunt at 16%. Nearly one-third of Republican primary voters remain undecided with 31% yet to make a choice.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball observed.

If no candidate secures a majority in the March 3 primary, the top two finishers will compete in a May 26 runoff election.

General Election Outlook Favors Republicans

Hypothetical general election matchups tested by Emerson show both Democratic candidates facing uphill battles against Republican opponents in November, though Talarico performs marginally better across the board.

In head-to-head contests, Cornyn leads Talarico 47% to 44% and Crockett 48% to 43%. Hunt similarly outpaces Talarico 47% to 44% and Crockett 48% to 43%. Paxton ties with both Democrats at 46% to 46%.

“Democrats have hotly debated whether Crockett or Talarico would be better positioned to break their party’s three-decade losing streak in Texas statewide elections,” the Texas Tribune reported.

The Emerson poll data suggests Paxton could prove the most vulnerable Republican nominee, though all three GOP candidates maintain advantages over both Democratic contenders.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, when Ann Richards served as governor. Recent statewide races have seen Republicans consistently win by margins ranging from 2.5 to 14 percentage points.

Name Recognition Gap Narrows

The December TSU poll found significant disparities in voter familiarity with the two candidates, with 94% of likely Democratic primary voters knowing enough about Crockett to have an opinion compared to only 79% for Talarico.

Among Black primary voters specifically, 47% reported insufficient knowledge of Talarico to form an opinion, compared to just 15% of Latino voters and 14% of white voters expressing similar unfamiliarity.

The narrowing gap between the two surveys suggests Talarico has successfully raised his profile among Democratic voters statewide since formally entering the race in September 2025.

Early Voting Begins February 19

Democratic voters will begin casting early ballots on February 19, with election day scheduled for March 3. The Emerson survey was conducted January 10-12 among 413 likely Democratic primary voters with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

The poll represents one snapshot in a race that has seen dramatic movement over the past month, with six weeks remaining before early voting begins and further shifts in voter preferences still possible.

Can Talarico maintain his momentum among Latino and white voters, or will Crockett’s overwhelming Black voter support and national profile prove decisive as the primary approaches?

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