• Trump predicts third impeachment if Democrats retake House in November elections despite no formal proceedings
  • Progressive Democrats already calling Venezuela operation impeachable offense over constitutional violations
  • Historical precedent shows president’s party loses House in 20 of last 22 midterm elections

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to House Republicans Tuesday: if they don’t retain congressional control in November’s midterm elections, Democrats will impeach him for a third time.

Impeachment Prediction At GOP Retreat

“You’ve got to win the midterms because, if we don’t win the midterms, it’s just going to be — I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me,” Trump said during a speech at the House Republican policy retreat held at the renamed Trump-Kennedy Center. “I’ll get impeached.”

The president’s remarks came on the fifth anniversary of the January 6 Capitol riot and days after his administration’s controversial military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump was previously impeached twice during his first term but acquitted both times by the Senate.

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“They impeached me for nothing twice,” Trump said Tuesday, referring to his 2019 impeachment over Ukraine and 2021 impeachment following the Capitol attack.

Despite the warning, Trump predicted an “epic” victory for Republicans. “We’re going to make history and break records with the epic midterm victory that we’re going to pull off,” he told lawmakers.

Democrats Already Calling For Impeachment

Several Democratic lawmakers have already called for Trump’s impeachment over the Venezuela operation, arguing he violated the Constitution by launching military action without congressional authorization.

  • Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL), a member of the progressive “Squad,” declared Saturday: “Trump and his Administration are out of control because they believe they are untouchable. Trump must be impeached.”
  • Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) called the Venezuela strike “an impeachable offense,” urging Republicans “to finally join Democrats in reasserting congressional authority by holding this president accountable for this gross violation of the Constitution.”
  • Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) told Axios she is “reconsidering” her previous dismissal of impeachment efforts: “Today, many Democrats have understandably questioned whether impeachment is possible again under the current political reality. I am reconsidering that view.”
  • Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) went further, suggesting the situation “might warrant removal under the 25th Amendment,” calling Trump’s Venezuela strategy “truly insane.”

Historical Precedent Working Against GOP

Trump acknowledged during his speech that historical trends favor Democrats in midterm elections. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections.

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“They say that when you win the presidency, you lose the midterm,” Trump told Republicans. “I wish you could explain to me what the hell’s going on with the mind of the public.”

Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority with 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats and four vacant seats in the House of Representatives. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate positions will be contested in November.

Impeachment Odds Rising

Polymarket betting odds showed the chances of Trump being impeached by the end of 2026 rose from 5% to 15% in the two days following last month’s release of Jeffrey Epstein documents. As of January 6, the chances stand at 12%.

Political analysts predict impeachment will become a central talking point for both parties as the midterms approach.

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“I don’t expect that trend to end anytime soon,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News in October. “If the Democrats win back the House this year, I would not be surprised to see them try to impeach the president.”

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) acknowledged in July that impeachment faces long odds: “We’ve already impeached him twice. So obviously that’s not a complete solution, given that he is able to beat the two-thirds constitutional spread.”

Venezuela Operation Fueling Impeachment Talk

The weekend military operation that captured Maduro has significantly escalated impeachment rhetoric. Democratic leaders including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) expressed fury at being left in the dark about the operation.

“I had absolutely no briefing or heads up,” House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Greg Meeks (D-NY) told Axios. “I received all information from the news media at this point.”

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Democratic candidates running for House seats have also seized on the issue. State Sen. Scott Weiner (D-CA), running to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, wrote that Trump must be “impeached immediately” over his “lawless act.”

Kat Abughazaleh, a Gen Z content creator running for an Illinois House seat, demanded Congress “impeach this war criminal president.”

GOP Defense Of Venezuela Operation

Republicans have largely defended the Venezuela operation as a successful move to capture a dictator and narco-terrorist. Top GOP lawmakers argue no congressional notification was needed for what they characterize as a law enforcement action rather than military operation.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) praised Trump on social media: “With the decision to capture Nicholas Maduro, a narco terrorist, responsible for the death of thousands of Americans, President Trump has changed the course of history and made America safer.”

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However, some Republicans including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) have expressed skepticism about the administration’s interventionist foreign policy.

Congress Response Options

While impeachment requires Democratic control of the House, Congress has other mechanisms to constrain Trump’s Venezuela actions. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) announced his bipartisan Venezuela war powers resolution “will come up for a vote in the Senate early next week.”

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) has introduced a War Powers Resolution aimed at blocking Trump from carrying out further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval.

Will Trump’s impeachment warning galvanize Republican turnout, or will economic concerns and historical precedent deliver Democrats the House majority needed to pursue a third impeachment?

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