• Leaked DHS data analyzed by Cato Institute shows only 5% of ICE detainees had violent criminal convictions
  • Trump administration officials claim 70% of arrests target criminals, including those with pending charges
  • Immigration arrests without criminal convictions increased sevenfold during first year of second term
WASHINGTON (TDR) — A leaked Department of Homeland Security document reveals that fewer than 14%—and potentially as low as 5%—of immigrants arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in President Donald Trump‘s first year back in office had violent criminal records, starkly contrasting the administration’s repeated claims that enforcement targets the “worst of the worst.”
The internal data, analyzed by the Cato Institute and Deportation Data Project at UC Berkeley and UCLA, shows that approximately 40% of ICE detainees had no U.S. criminal record whatsoever—neither convictions nor pending charges—while 73% had no criminal convictions at all. The findings challenge the administration’s framing of immigration enforcement as primarily focused on public safety threats.

Data Reveals Shift in Enforcement Priorities

The Deportation Data Project, which obtained individual-level ICE data through Freedom of Information Act litigation, found that only 7% of immigrants arrested between January 20 and October 15, 2025, had violent criminal convictions. Cato Institute’s analysis of leaked DHS custody data from October through November 2025 put the figure at just 5%.
“Nearly three in four (73 percent) had no criminal conviction. Nearly half had no criminal conviction nor even any pending criminal charges. Only 5 percent had a violent criminal conviction.” — David Bier, Director of Immigration Studies, Cato Institute, November 2025
The data reveals a dramatic shift in ICE enforcement tactics. While the administration eliminated enforcement priorities that had guided the Biden administration, arrests of immigrants without criminal convictions increased by 571% between January and July 2025. Street arrests—conducted at workplaces and homes rather than through jail transfers—rose by more than 1,000%.
“The result stands in contrast to the administration’s objective of arresting the ‘worst of the worst.’ Heightened enforcement is likely increasing ‘collateral’ arrests of people found during searches for convicted criminals.” — Ariel Ruiz Soto, Senior Policy Analyst, Migration Policy Institute, December 2025

Administration Defends “Criminal Alien” Statistics

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials dispute characterizations that enforcement lacks criminal focus. Secretary Kristi Noem has repeatedly stated that approximately 70% of ICE arrests involve immigrants with criminal convictions or pending charges—a figure that includes immigration violations and pending criminal charges that may never result in convictions.
“Every single individual has committed a crime, but 70% of them have committed or have charges against them on violent crimes and crimes that they are charged with or have been convicted of.” — Kristi Noem, DHS Secretary, CBS “Face the Nation,” January 18, 2026
Tom Homan, White House border czar, has defended the enforcement strategy on similar grounds, stating that the administration targets those who pose public safety threats.
“Let’s remember the true data, the true data, 70%, approximately, it goes anywhere from 60% to 70%, of people that are arrested are criminals, bottom line.” — Tom Homan, White House Border Czar, NBC “Meet the Press,” January 11, 2026
The administration launched a “Worst of the Worst” website in December 2025 highlighting specific cases of violent criminals arrested by ICE, including murderers, rapists, and gang members. However, independent analysts note these high-profile examples represent a small fraction of total arrests.

Legal Experts Question Criminality Metrics

The divergence in statistics stems largely from definitions. The administration’s 70% figure includes immigrants with pending criminal charges, who have not been convicted, and those with immigration violations such as illegal entry or reentry—crimes that are generally classified as misdemeanors or civil violations rather than violent felonies.
“A charge is not a conviction. Just because someone is charged with a crime… People are innocent until proven guilty.” — Lauren-Brooke Eisen, Senior Director for Justice, Brennan Center for Justice, January 2026
David Hausman, assistant professor at UC Berkeley School of Law and director of the Deportation Data Project, emphasized that administrative detention based on pending charges departs from traditional criminal justice standards.
“Someone with a pending charge who is not convicted is not usually called a ‘criminal’ in our criminal system.” — David Hausman, Director, Deportation Data Project, January 2026
Data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University shows that as of January 25, 2026, approximately 74.2% of ICE detainees had no criminal convictions, while those with violent convictions comprised a single-digit percentage of the detention population.

Enforcement Surge Targets Non-Criminals

The Deportation Data Project’s analysis found that interior deportations increased by 4.6 times during Trump’s first year compared to the final months of the Biden administration. However, the composition of those arrests shifted significantly toward individuals without criminal records.
Between January and October 2025:
  • Arrests of noncitizens without criminal convictions increased sevenfold
  • Arrests of those with nonviolent convictions doubled
  • Arrests of those with violent convictions increased by only 30%
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) challenged the administration’s characterization of enforcement during a January broadcast.
“I heard him say that they are undertaking targeted enforcement actions against criminals. Just not true. The vast majority of people they are rounding up are peaceful immigrants.” — Sen. Chris Murphy, (D-CT), NBC “Meet the Press,” January 11, 2026
Graeme Blair, associate professor of political science at UCLA and co-director of the Deportation Data Project, noted the disconnect between rhetoric and data.
“When you listen to senior leaders in the Trump administration, what they’re saying is that they’re arresting what they’re calling the, quote, worst of the worst. They’re arresting people that they’re referring to as murderers and rapists. And I think that that just really doesn’t tell the story of what they’re doing.” — Graeme Blair, Associate Professor, UCLA, July 2025

Resource Allocation Debate

The enforcement surge has strained ICE detention capacity, which has expanded to roughly 70,000 beds—an 80% increase since May 2025. Immigration courts face a backlog of over 3 million cases, while ICE conducts approximately 1,000 arrests daily.
Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, noted that the lack of detailed crime classification data makes independent verification of administration claims impossible.
“We have no way of knowing if the worst of the worst are being targeted. The government is not giving us access to that kind of data.” — Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, Migration Policy Institute, January 2026
Cato’s analysis found that among detainees with criminal convictions, the majority involved vice crimes, traffic offenses, or immigration violations rather than violent crimes. The most common non-violent convictions were for driving under the influence and traffic offenses, according to a New York Times analysis of the same data.
How should immigration enforcement resources be allocated when data suggests the majority of arrests target non-violent offenders, and what metrics should determine whether these policies succeed in enhancing public safety versus enforcing immigration compliance?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Cato Institute’s analysis of leaked ICE custody data, the Deportation Data Project’s enforcement analysis via UC Berkeley and UCLA, DHS official statements on “Worst of the Worst” arrests, Syracuse University’s TRAC immigration quick facts, Stateline’s analysis of ICE arrest trends, Forbes’ reporting on violent crime statistics, The Independent’s coverage of ICE data, Poynter Institute’s fact-checking analysis, FactCheck.org’s verification of arrest records, and Yahoo News’ reporting on leaked DHS documents.

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