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• Qatar and the UAE are privately lobbying allies to persuade Trump to find a diplomatic off-ramp and end the Iran conflict early
• Iranian drone strikes forced Qatar to shut down the Ras Laffan LNG facility — the world’s largest — removing roughly 20% of global supply
• European gas prices surged more than 50% while Goldman Sachs warns prices could more than double if Strait of Hormuz shipping stays disrupted for a month

DOHA, QATAR (TDR) — The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are quietly building a coalition of allies to pressure President Donald Trump into ending military operations against Iran sooner than planned, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter.

The Gulf allies push Trump to end the Iran war comes as the economic fallout from Operation Epic Fury accelerates far beyond the battlefield — threatening global energy markets, rattling European economies and forcing Gulf states to absorb Iranian retaliatory strikes on their own soil and infrastructure.

“The countries are seeking to build a wide coalition for a swift and diplomatic end to the conflict, in order to prevent regional escalation and a prolonged energy price shock.” — Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources

The LNG Shutdown That Changed the Calculus

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The diplomatic push intensified Monday after QatarEnergy announced it had halted all liquefied natural gas production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial complexes following Iranian drone strikes on both facilities. The Ras Laffan plant is the world’s largest LNG export facility, covering approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply.

The impact was immediate and severe. European benchmark gas futures jumped as much as 54% — the largest single-day surge since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. British wholesale gas prices spiked approximately 50%, while Asian LNG benchmarks rose nearly 39%.

“The threat to security of supply is here and now. The extent of it will depend on the duration of the shutdown, but we are now into a new scenario.” — Simone Tagliapietra, Bruegel analyst

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A Qatari assessment shared with Bloomberg warned that if shipping lanes remain disrupted through mid-week, the market reaction to natural gas prices would grow significantly worse than Monday’s already historic spike. Goldman Sachs projected that a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push European gas prices toward €74 per megawatt hour — roughly 130% above Friday’s close — and a two-month disruption could send prices past €100 per megawatt hour.

Strait of Hormuz: The Chokepoint Driving the Crisis

The energy crisis extends well beyond Qatar’s LNG shutdown. The Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide passage between Iran and Oman that carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, has experienced a near-total halt in commercial traffic since strikes began Saturday.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued VHF radio warnings to vessels that no ships would be permitted to pass. While Tehran has not formally declared a blockade, tanker traffic dropped approximately 70% and over 150 vessels anchored outside the strait. Major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM suspended all transits.

“Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt roughly a fifth of globally traded oil overnight — and prices wouldn’t just spike, they would gap violently upward on fear alone.” — Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group

Brent crude surged as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel on Monday, the highest since January 2025. Energy analysts at Bank of America warned that if Tehran takes a hardline approach and continues targeting energy infrastructure, Brent prices could surge above $100 per barrel. American drivers should expect gas prices to rise 10 to 30 cents per gallon over the next week, according to GasBuddy analysis.

Gulf States Caught Between Allies and Attackers

The diplomatic initiative underscores an uncomfortable reality for Gulf nations: they are absorbing Iranian retaliatory strikes while the U.S. military — whose operations prompted the retaliation — focuses primarily on offensive objectives rather than allied defense.

Saudi Arabia shut down its 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery after drone strikes caused a fire at one of the Middle East’s largest energy complexes. In Iraqi Kurdistan, multiple oil companies halted production. Israel ordered the shutdown of the Leviathan gas field, its largest.

“Iran has always been open to diplomacy, and I think we have a very good record of that. This is the second time that we negotiated with the Americans, and they decided to attack us right in the middle of negotiation.” — Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister

Qatar’s Patriot missile stockpiles could be depleted within four days at the current rate of use, according to the Times of Israel. The Gulf states that joined a joint statement with the U.S. on Sunday condemning Iranian strikes now find themselves seeking that same administration’s help to wind down the conflict generating those strikes.

European gas storage levels compound the urgency. EU storage sits below 30% capacity, with Germany at 20.5% and France at 21% — far lower than the 40% levels recorded at the same point last year. With the winter heating season ending and summer replenishment critical, a prolonged disruption threatens European energy security heading into next winter.

The ‘Off-Ramp’ Challenge

Whether the Gulf coalition can influence Trump remains an open question. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Monday that the operation’s objectives — destroying Iranian missiles, missile production, the navy and preventing nuclear weapons — would be pursued until completion. Trump himself estimated the campaign could last four to five weeks.

But early signals suggest the White House may not be entirely deaf to diplomatic pressure. A White House official told reporters that Iran’s “new potential leadership” has indicated openness to talks, and Trump said he would “eventually” be willing to engage diplomatically.

The question is whether the economic damage compounding daily — from collapsing shipping lanes to shuttered refineries to European energy markets not seen since the Ukraine crisis — forces that timeline to accelerate.

When America’s closest Gulf allies are privately building coalitions to end a war the U.S. started on their doorstep, does the economic fallout become the exit strategy that military planners haven’t provided — and at what point do energy markets force decisions that Pentagon briefings won’t?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CNBC, Euronews, reporting by NPR, The Times of Israel, Middle East Eye, OilPrice.com, GB News, PBS NewsHour, CBS News, and energy analysis from Kpler and Rigzone.

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