NEED TO KNOW

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the Strait of Hormuz is not currently safe for shipping
• National average gas prices have risen roughly 76 cents per gallon since the war began
• Wright predicted gas could fall below $3 per gallon by summer but offered no guarantees

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Americans Sunday to expect elevated gas prices for a few more weeks as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its third week. Wright framed the economic pain as a temporary cost of eliminating what he called the greatest long-term risk to global energy supplies. Economists and opposition lawmakers offered a different read of the same numbers.

“Yes, it is a short-term disruption to the flow of energy. Americans are feeling it right now. Americans will feel it for a few more weeks, but at the end, we will have removed the greatest risk to global energy supplies.” — Chris Wright

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Wright made the remarks to NBC News anchor Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” adding that the administration expected the conflict to resolve the persistent threat Iran poses to regional stability and American military personnel. When pressed on whether the war would be over in a few weeks, he said, “I think that’s the likely timeframe.”

The Numbers Behind the Promise

The data behind Wright’s remarks tells a less tidy story. According to AAA, the national average price of gasoline reached roughly $3.70 per gallon as of Sunday, up from about $2.98 a month ago, a 24% increase in under three weeks. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan noted the gas price surge since Feb. 28 has now hit roughly 76 cents per gallon on average, with diesel prices up an even steeper 32%. Gas prices last week recorded their largest three-day spike since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, according to Bespoke Investment Group analysis.

Wright also acknowledged plainly what the administration had previously danced around. Asked whether the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, is currently safe for shipping, Wright answered: “No, no it is not.”

He added that making the strait safe is one of the operation’s objectives, and said five tankers had passed through the waterway the previous night without incident, a sign of some movement, though well below the normal 150-plus daily transits. He expressed confidence that China, despite its strategic ties to Iran, would cooperate in reopening the passage given how heavily its own economy depends on energy flowing through it.

Critics Aren’t Buying the Timeline

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Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), appearing on the same program, acknowledged the conflict was launched with expectations of a fast resolution but questioned whether those expectations were realistic.

“The one thing I agreed with the secretary on is when he said there are no guarantees in war. They don’t really know when this war is going to end. And our enemy also has a vote in when things end.” — Adam Schiff

Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, pointed to a widening domestic security picture, citing attacks on American soil since the war began, including incidents in Michigan, New York, Virginia and Texas.

Economists have separately warned the pump price spike is only part of the economic exposure. Ravi Ramamurti, a professor of international business at Northeastern University, told news.northeastern.edu that the ripple effects extend well beyond gas stations.

“In the short run, oil and gas prices will go up because of production and transportation dislocations. In the long run, this is likely to slow growth everywhere, including the U.S., and add to inflationary pressures.” — Ravi Ramamurti

The Center for American Progress noted that a month ago just nine states averaged gas prices above $3 per gallon. As of this week, that number is 48.

The Political Calculus

The political stakes are sharpening as midterm elections approach. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week found just 29% of Americans approve of the Iran strikes, with two-thirds, including 44% of Republicans, expecting gas prices to keep rising. Three of the four largest weekly diesel price spikes nationally have hit key Senate battleground states: Texas, North Carolina and Georgia.

House Republican Mike McCaul (R-TX) acknowledged the squeeze while backing the mission.

“Short-term pain for long-term gain is quite extraordinary. They’re going to look back at this historic moment that freed up the Middle East and put it on a path to peace and normalization.” — Mike McCaul

Wright, for his part, stopped short of firm guarantees. “There’s no guarantees in wars at all,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.” He did predict a “very good chance” gas prices could fall below $3 per gallon by summer, a figure well under where prices sit today.

With gas prices at a 19-month high, a strait still dangerous for shipping, and no ceasefire in sight, the question for American households isn’t whether the long-term payoff is real — it’s whether families can feel confident “a few more weeks” means what the administration says it does?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from NBC News, the NBC Meet the Press transcript, ABC News, The Hill, Fortune, CNBC, Axios, Chicago Tribune, Northeastern University, the Center for American Progress, and TIME.

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