• Exxon Mobil and Chevron say no plans to increase Venezuela capital spending in 2026
• CEOs cite need for legal reforms, political stability, and favorable oil prices before major investments
• Trump threatened to exclude Exxon after CEO called Venezuela "uninvestable"

HOUSTON, TX (TDR) — America's largest oil companies told investors Friday they have no plans to increase capital spending in Venezuela this year despite President Donald Trump's demands for more than $100 billion in investments to rebuild the South American nation's dilapidated oil infrastructure.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said during fourth-quarter earnings calls that they are taking a wait-and-see approach while legal and political reforms unfold to make Venezuela more attractive to foreign investment.

The cautious stance comes two weeks after Woods infamously drew Trump's ire by telling the president that Venezuela is currently "uninvestable" until major reforms are enacted and the country achieves real stability — comments Trump later called "too cute."

Exxon CEO Demands Democratic Transition

Woods reiterated Friday that Venezuela needs to transition to representative government before his company will consider major investments in the oil-rich but economically devastated nation.

"Frankly, from our perspective, there's a principle that we stand on that if you don't uphold the sanctity of the contracts, if you choose to instead to steal the investments that we made and undermine the work that we've been doing, that we can't continue to work with you," Woods told CNBC.

Exxon had its oil assets expropriated in Venezuela less than 20 years ago under former President Hugo Chavez's nationalization program. The company is still seeking to recover almost $2 billion from that seizure, according to Reuters.

"You can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state," Woods said during the January 9 White House meeting with Trump.

The Exxon chief said Friday he believes the Trump administration is committed to making necessary changes to eventually turn Venezuela into a viable investment option, but emphasized the timeline remains uncertain.

"Venezuela has those challenges that I mentioned, which I believe in time will get addressed," Woods said on the earnings call. "We think we bring an advantaged approach that will lead to lower-cost production, higher recovery, and therefore, more economic barrels onto the marketplace."

Chevron Watching "Number Of Signposts"

Wirth said Chevron is reviewing Venezuela's new hydrocarbons law that was tentatively approved by the National Assembly on January 29 and monitoring several key indicators before committing to major capital expenditures.

"Like anywhere we invest, fiscal terms, stability, regulatory predictability are important," Wirth said. "So it will have to compete in our portfolio versus attractive investments in many other parts of the world."

"With the right changes, we certainly could see our operations and the footprint expand in Venezuela," he added. "And we're working with the U.S. government and the Venezuelan government to try to create circumstances that would enable that."

Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela under a special Treasury Department license. The company maintained operations throughout decades of upheaval while competitors like Exxon and ConocoPhillips left after asset seizures.

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Chevron Vice Chair Mark Nelson told Trump at the White House meeting that the company could increase Venezuelan production "by about 50% just in the next 18 to 24 months, and that's just leveraging what's on the ground."

However, Wirth made clear Friday that such modest increases with existing infrastructure differ significantly from the massive new capital investments Trump envisions.

Low Oil Prices Compound Investment Challenges

Both companies posted their lowest annual profits since 2021 in Friday's earnings reports, highlighting why major new oil production investments remain unattractive in the current market environment.

Exxon reported fourth-quarter earnings of $6.5 billion, down 15% year-over-year from $7.6 billion. Full-year 2025 earnings came in at $28.8 billion, down 14% from $33.7 billion in 2024.

Chevron reported quarterly earnings of almost $2.8 billion, down nearly 15% from more than $3.2 billion the previous year. Full-year profits totaled $12.3 billion, down 30% from $17.7 billion in 2024.

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The declining profits stem primarily from deflated crude oil prices — the same low prices that make Venezuelan investments more challenging given the high costs of extracting and processing the country's extra-heavy grade of tar-like crude.

"The market is in a low-price environment," said Tom Seng, assistant professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University.

Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston, put it more bluntly regarding Venezuela investment prospects.

"Until they see a Trump hotel on the beach in Caracas, no oil company is going down to Venezuela with billions of dollars," Hirs said.

Venezuela's Heavy Crude Requires Higher Prices

Woods emphasized that Venezuela's extra-heavy crude oil presents unique extraction and processing challenges that require higher commodity prices to justify investment.

The tar-like crude is significantly harder and more expensive to refine than the lighter oil found in prolific U.S. shale basins like the Permian in West Texas, where both companies are setting production records.

"In Venezuela, the challenge is developing abundant resources, not finding them," said energy analyst Jack O'Conor. "This requires a higher oil price. And then, additionally, most potential investors will need a significant change in the country's legal and commercial frameworks before they consider investing."

Woods noted that Exxon has expertise in producing heavy oil sands in Canada that could translate to Venezuela, but emphasized that technological capability alone doesn't overcome political and economic hurdles.

Consulting firm Rystad Energy estimates that just maintaining Venezuela's current oil production flat at 1.1 million barrels per day — roughly equal to North Dakota's output — would require about $53 billion of investment over the next 15 years.

To return Venezuela to its glory days of 3 million barrels per day from the late 1990s, total oil and gas capital spending would need to reach a staggering $183 billion through 2040, according to Rystad's analysis.

Trump Threatened To Exclude Exxon

Trump's frustration with Exxon's cautious approach boiled over during a January 12 Air Force One flight when he threatened to exclude the world's largest publicly traded oil company from Venezuela opportunities.

"I didn't like Exxon's response," Trump said. "I'd probably be inclined to keep Exxon out. I didn't like their response. They're playing too cute."

The president's comments came after Woods' blunt assessment at the White House meeting that Venezuela would need "pretty significant changes" from its current state before Exxon would consider re-entering the country for a third time.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that U.S. oil companies will spend more than $100 billion in Venezuela to dramatically rebuild infrastructure damaged during the Nicolás Maduro regime, which the U.S. forcibly removed from power in early January.

"We're going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," Trump said during a press conference following Maduro's capture.

When asked what backstops or guarantees his administration would provide to oil companies, Trump replied: "There's going to be no problem."

"Oil firms had experienced problems in the past because they didn't have Trump as a president, they had stupid people," he added.

ConocoPhillips Still Seeking $12 Billion

ConocoPhillips, another major U.S. oil company that left Venezuela after asset seizures, remains scarred from its prior experience. The company is still trying to recover an estimated $12 billion from Chavez's nationalization of its Venezuela assets around 2006.

"Venezuela is the country that has seen the most expropriation cases brought against it," industry analysts noted.

A ConocoPhillips spokesperson told CBS News the company is monitoring developments but said it would be "premature to speculate" on any future business activities or investments in Venezuela.

Trump told oil industry CEOs at the White House meeting that his administration is not planning to force Venezuela to pay outstanding claims from the 2007 nationalization — a stance that likely reinforces companies' skepticism about investment security.

U.S. Working With Maduro Regime Insiders

The U.S. has been working with Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodriguez, who is a long-standing insider in the authoritarian regime that Chavez built and Maduro continued.

The cooperation with Rodriguez has raised concerns among some observers that the current regime could remain in place so long as it meets the Trump administration's demands on oil production — undermining Woods' insistence on democratic transition as a prerequisite for Exxon investment.

Despite the challenges, Exxon said it remains committed to sending a small technical team to Venezuela to assess the situation and opportunities, though no timeline has been provided for major capital deployment.

Record Production In Permian, Guyana

Despite their cautious Venezuela stance, both companies reported strong production results from existing operations, underscoring why Venezuelan investment faces tough competition for capital allocation.

Exxon achieved its highest full-year net production in more than 40 years at 4.7 million barrels per day, with assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana setting output records.

Chevron reported its largest oil and gas production volumes in company history despite the weaker commodity environment.

The strong performance from established assets in politically stable regions with favorable fiscal terms makes Venezuela's uncertain investment climate even less attractive in comparison.

Will Trump's pressure campaign succeed in convincing major oil companies to commit billions to Venezuela, or will political instability and low crude prices keep Big Oil on the sidelines?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Fortune's coverage of the earnings calls, CNBC's reporting on Exxon CEO comments, Marketplace analysis of earnings results, CNN Business reporting on Trump's Venezuela plans, Axios coverage of Trump's Exxon comments, CBS News reporting on company responses, Yahoo Finance analysis of Chevron's outlook, and NPR's examination of oil company concerns.

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