• President Trump defended letting the last US-Russia nuclear treaty lapse by claiming he prevented wars between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine
• Experts warn the expiration could trigger an unconstrained three-way arms race between the US, Russia and China
• Russia expressed regret while the UN called the moment "grave" — but last-minute talks in Abu Dhabi may have produced an informal agreement to observe limits temporarily

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia officially expired at midnight Thursday, ending more than half a century of binding constraints on the world's two largest atomic arsenals. President Donald Trump defended allowing the New START treaty to lapse by claiming personal credit for preventing nuclear conflicts across multiple continents.

"I have stopped Nuclear Wars from breaking out across the World between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine."

Trump made the assertion in a Truth Social post that also called New START "a badly negotiated deal" being "grossly violated" by Russia. Rather than extend the existing agreement, he called for nuclear experts to craft "a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future."

India has consistently disputed Trump's claims about preventing a nuclear exchange with Pakistan, stating that de-escalation was achieved through bilateral diplomatic channels without third-party involvement.

What the Treaty Did — and What Happens Now

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers. It also established verification mechanisms including on-site inspections and data exchanges that gave each side transparency into the other's capabilities.

President Joe Biden extended the treaty by five years in 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia's participation in 2023 over the war in Ukraine but did not withdraw, and both sides were believed to still be observing the warhead limits.

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Putin offered last September to voluntarily continue observing the treaty's limits for an additional year if the US reciprocated. Trump initially called the proposal "a good idea" but reversed course in January, telling the New York Times: "If it expires, it expires. We'll do a better agreement."

Christine Wormuth, president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former Secretary of the Army, captured the gravity of the moment.

"There are no more guardrails on the sizes of the United States and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals. That has not been the case for decades."

The Three-Way Arms Race Question

The Trump administration's central argument for letting New START lapse is that any meaningful 21st-century arms control agreement must include China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Wednesday that "in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile."

Beijing flatly rejected the premise. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China "will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at the current stage," noting that China's roughly 600 warheads are dwarfed by the combined US and Russian stockpiles exceeding 8,000.

Arms control experts say letting the bilateral treaty expire while waiting for a trilateral deal that China has no incentive to join could backfire dramatically.

"If the United States and Russia begin to increase the number of deployed nuclear weapons, it is going to send a signal to China that they must continue with their strategic nuclear buildup and probably accelerate it," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

Rose Gottemoeller, who served as chief US negotiator for New START, warned that the worst-case scenario involves Russia rapidly uploading additional warheads "that essentially leaves us in the dust while we're still trying to get organized and the Chinese are building up steadily again."

Late Diplomacy and Global Alarm

As the treaty formally lapsed, multiple diplomatic tracks converged. Axios reported that US and Russian negotiators had been working through the night in Abu Dhabi on an informal agreement to continue observing New START's limits, though any deal would lack legal force.

"We agreed with Russia to operate in good faith and to start a discussion about ways it could be updated," a US official told Axios.

Sources indicated both sides may agree to observe the treaty's terms for at least six months while negotiating a potential replacement — but nothing would be official until both presidents endorsed it.

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Russia's Foreign Ministry declared Wednesday that it considered the treaty's obligations no longer binding, while pledging to "act responsibly and with restraint." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the expiration Thursday and said: "We view this negatively and regret this development."

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning as the treaty lapsed.

"For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States. The risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades."

Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at Moscow's Primakov Institute, offered a measured assessment that acknowledged both the timeline and the trajectory.

"It's not like the arms race will begin on February 6th. But if we don't have any limitations and we don't have negotiations, both countries will plan for the worst case scenario."

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved its Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight last week, citing escalating nuclear danger and a failure of leadership — the closest the symbolic measure has ever been to catastrophe.

If Trump is right that the old framework was broken and a better deal is possible, the question becomes: can the world afford the gap between letting the last guardrails fall and building new ones — and who bears the risk if negotiations stall while arsenals grow?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from NBC News' reporting on the treaty expiration and arms race fears, NPR's analysis of New START's significance, ABC News' coverage of Trump's China-inclusive framework, Al Jazeera's reporting on the Russian response, CNN's expert roundup on arms race risks, Newsweek's reporting on Trump's call for a new treaty, Axios' scoop on informal US-Russia negotiations, official statements from the United Nations and the House Oversight Committee on New START background, and Newsweek's Doomsday Clock analysis.

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