• A new Emerson College poll shows Republican Steve Hilton leading California's gubernatorial field at 17%, but 21% of voters remain undecided
• Political simulations estimate an 18% chance two Republicans could advance, shutting Democrats out of the November ballot entirely
• Both parties face structural problems under the state's top-two primary system, with Democrats splitting among eight-plus candidates and Republicans unable to consolidate behind one

SACRAMENTO, CA (TDR) — California's wide-open race for governor has produced a scenario that seemed unthinkable in the nation's most reliably Democratic state — two Republicans currently sit atop the latest polling in a contest where the top-two primary system could lock Democrats out of the November ballot. But the full picture is more complicated than either party's spin suggests, and both sides have reason for genuine concern about the structural dynamics at play.

An Emerson College/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted Feb. 13-14 found conservative commentator Steve Hilton leading the field at 17%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) tied at 14%. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) trailed at 10%, with billionaire Tom Steyer (D) at 9%.

The critical number, however, may be the 21% who remain undecided — more than any single candidate's share.

How California's Top-Two Primary Creates Chaos

Under the nonpartisan primary system voters adopted in 2010, all candidates regardless of party appear on a single June ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to November — even if both belong to the same party. The system was designed to produce more moderate candidates, but in a race with no clear frontrunner, the math gets treacherous for whichever party fields more candidates.

"The risk is that we have a situation where no Democrat makes the runoff. And if that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election."

That warning came from Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data expert who developed a primary simulation model. Mitchell's tool estimates the probability of a Republican-versus-Republican matchup at roughly 18% based on 2026 polling data alone.

"For frame of reference, an 18% chance is about equivalent to the chances of San Francisco being fogged in during your morning rush hour. Not exactly an unheard of event."

But the flip side of this equation receives far less attention. Republicans face their own version of the same structural problem, and some GOP strategists are sounding alarms that mirror the Democratic panic almost word for word.

Republicans Have a Vote-Splitting Problem Too

State Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, chairman of Reform California, has issued a pointed warning to his own party about the same top-two dynamics.

"If Republicans divide their support among multiple candidates, Democrats will take both top spots — and voters will be left with no real choice in November."

DeMaio's concern is not hypothetical. While the race currently features two prominent Republicans — Hilton and Bianco — additional GOP candidates entering the field could fracture conservative support the same way Democrats are fracturing theirs. The Emerson poll found the Republican electorate essentially split, with 38% of GOP voters backing Hilton and 37% supporting Bianco.

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Hilton himself has publicly called on Bianco to exit the race. During a recent debate, the former Fox News contributor made his position blunt.

"We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in."

The underlying math is straightforward. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide. Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the total primary vote among their candidates, with Republicans splitting the remaining 40%. The question is whether either side's vote fragments so badly that both top-two spots go to the other party.

The Democratic Fragmentation Problem Is Real

The scope of the Democratic field is genuinely unprecedented for a California gubernatorial race. More than eight serious Democratic contenders remain in the contest, including Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond.

"Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided."

That assessment from Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, underscores a fundamental structural vulnerability. No Democrat has broken out of the pack, and the party's biggest potential field-clearers — former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla — both declined to run.

Political analyst Matt Klink acknowledged the mathematical possibility while cautioning against overreaction.

"It is mathematically possible that you could have two Republicans finishing one-two in the primary. That said, I believe the political brains in the Democratic Party will get involved and say we need to make sure we get one of our candidates into the runoff because he or she will likely win the general election."

Follow the Money: Fundraising Tells a Different Story

Campaign finance reports add another layer to the analysis. Hilton raised approximately $4.1 million in donations during the second half of 2025, leading most candidates. But he spent more than half of that already, entering 2026 with roughly $2 million on hand — only slightly more than Bianco.

The fundraising picture reveals a Democratic field struggling to consolidate donor support. Steyer has self-funded $28 million into his campaign, spending $26 million of it on advertising, yet polls at just 9%. Swalwell raised $3.1 million since entering the race. Becerra started 2026 with the most Democratic cash on hand at $3.8 million, while Villaraigosa and Porter held $3.4 million and $3.2 million respectively.

"No one but Steyer will be anywhere close."

Democratic strategist Garry South made that observation about statewide advertising spending, highlighting the gap between what candidates are raising and what a competitive California gubernatorial campaign actually costs. For context, Gavin Newsom's last campaign spent $30.7 million between January and Election Day — the equivalent of more than $40 million in 2026 dollars.

Historical Context Both Sides Should Remember

California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger's reelection in 2006. Democrats have won every statewide election since 2010 — a 32-for-32 streak across all eight statewide offices.

That historical dominance cuts both ways in this analysis. For Republicans celebrating early polling leads, the state's fundamental partisan math remains daunting. Even if two Republicans advance to November, at least one strategist has warned of what might follow.

"My caution to Republicans though on that is we should then expect that governor to be immediately recalled. Democrats who are still a 2-1 majority. Most will say this is a fluke."

That assessment from Republican strategist Matt Stutzman — quoted in a CBS Sacramento report — highlights a dynamic the celebratory framing often ignores. A Republican governor in California would face a legislature where Democrats hold roughly three-quarters of seats in both chambers.

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For Democrats dismissing the threat, UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser offered a reality check on the current state of play.

"There is no clear front-runner in a race where we're only three-and-a-half months away from the primary."

What Happens Next — And What To Watch

The March 6 filing deadline represents the next inflection point. That is the cutoff for candidates to add or drop their names from the ballot. Whether lower-polling Democrats exit and consolidate support behind a frontrunner — or whether the fragmented field persists — will largely determine whether the two-Republican scenario remains a realistic threat or fades into a political footnote.

Meanwhile, Hilton continues to campaign on what he calls the "Califordable" platform, promising $3 gas, halved electric bills, and a $100,000 tax-free income threshold. Bianco is running on a law enforcement platform emphasizing public safety. Among Democrats, Swalwell has drawn Hollywood donor support, Steyer is blanketing the airwaves, and Porter and Becerra are competing for name-recognition advantages from their prior statewide campaigns.

Emerson's poll also found that Governor Newsom's approval rating has dropped to 44% with 45% disapproving — a three-point decline since December. Separately, 53% of California voters said they have considered leaving the state because of the cost of living. Those numbers suggest an electorate broadly frustrated with the status quo, which could benefit outsider candidates of either party.

Does the top-two primary system produce better governance by forcing candidates toward the center, or does it create structural chaos that can deliver outcomes wildly misaligned with a state's actual voter preferences — and what would either result look like in California?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Emerson College Polling's February 2026 California survey, Emerson's December 2025 California survey, reporting by KTLA on the governor's race polling, The Mercury News on Hilton's surge and Mitchell's simulator, The Hill on Democratic primary risks, CBS Sacramento on the TWINS primary simulator, CalMatters on campaign fundraising reports, The American Prospect's analysis of the top-two primary dynamics, LA Magazine's polling overview, Reform California's GOP vote-splitting warning, ABC News on the crowded Democratic field, and Steve Hilton's campaign site for platform details.

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