NEED TO KNOW

• Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times that crude oil could hit $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz — more than double pre-war prices
• Qatar has already halted LNG production after Iranian drone strikes hit its Ras Laffan facility, taking roughly 20% of global LNG supply offline
• The Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down to commercial traffic, with over 150 tankers anchored in open waters and insurers withdrawing from the corridor entirely

DOHA, QATAR (TDR) — Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi delivered one of the starkest economic warnings of the Iran war's first week Friday, telling the Financial Times that oil prices could surge to $150 a barrel within weeks — and that a failure to end the conflict could bring down economies worldwide.

"Bring Down the Economies of the World"

Speaking to the Financial Times, al-Kaabi said every Gulf energy exporter is on the verge of declaring force majeure — a legal mechanism that releases parties from contract obligations due to unforeseeable circumstances — effectively halting deliveries to the global market.

"Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure." — Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar Energy Minister

"If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply." — Saad al-Kaabi

Al-Kaabi forecast crude prices could reach $150 a barrel in two to three weeks if ships cannot navigate the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply and 20% of global LNG. He also warned natural gas prices could jump to $40 per million British thermal units, roughly four times recent levels. Even if the war ended immediately, he said, it would take Qatar "weeks to months" to return to a normal delivery cycle.

The Strait: Closed in Practice if Not in Law

The Strait of Hormuz has not been formally blockaded, but it has effectively ceased to function as a commercial corridor. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander declared it "closed" on March 2, warning any vessel attempting to pass would be "set ablaze." Commercial operators, major oil companies and insurers have since withdrawn from the route. More than 150 tankers are anchored in open Gulf waters, unable or unwilling to proceed.

Iran achieved the closure not through naval power but through cheap drone strikes near the waterway, according to energy analyst Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.

"We're now facing what looks like the biggest energy crisis since the oil embargo in the 1970s. All Iran had to do was several drone strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. And all of a sudden, insurers and shipping companies decided that it was unsafe to traverse that very narrow S-curve of that waterway." — Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility — the country's largest — was struck by Iranian drones and has suspended production. Only six or seven of Qatar's 128 LNG carriers were available to load cargo as of Friday, al-Kaabi said, with at least 10 ships struck and insurance premiums surging to levels that have made shipping companies unwilling to enter the region. Iraq has begun shutting down production at some of its largest oil fields, with nowhere to send the output.

Who Gets Hurt — and Who Benefits

The pain is not distributed equally. Asian economies are most exposed: roughly 84% of Hormuz crude flows east, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for nearly 70% of shipments. Japan sources 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with 70% of that transiting the strait. Pakistan, Bangladesh and India get the vast majority of their LNG from Qatar and the UAE.

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Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, framed the stakes plainly.

"Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt roughly a fifth of globally traded oil overnight — and prices wouldn't just spike, they would gap violently upward on fear alone. The shock would reverberate far beyond energy markets, tightening financial conditions, fuelling inflation, and pushing fragile economies closer to recession in a matter of weeks." — Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group

The Stimson Center noted that even partial rerouting through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah terminal cannot offset a full Strait closure. A sustained disruption removing 8 to 10 million barrels per day from world supply has no adequate replacement.

One clear beneficiary: Russia. With Middle East barrels inaccessible, both India and China face strong incentives to deepen reliance on Russian crude, according to market intelligence firm Kpler — improving Moscow's competitive position in global energy markets even as it sits out the conflict.

President Donald Trump announced this week that the U.S. would offer political risk insurance for energy tankers and Navy escorts through the Strait, and has been striking Iranian warships to reduce Tehran's grip on the waterway. Whether those measures can restore commercial confidence before the economic damage compounds remains the central question for global markets.

Brent crude closed the week up roughly 20% from pre-war levels, with West Texas Intermediate surging 25%, both benchmarks at their highest since April 2024, according to market reports. At $85 to $90 a barrel Friday, prices remain well below al-Kaabi's $150 warning — but the minister was explicit that the threshold is a matter of weeks, not months, if the Strait stays closed.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE THE DUPREE REPORT

If the Strait of Hormuz remains commercially impassable, the countries most exposed to economic pain are not the ones who launched the war — so who bears responsibility for managing the fallout?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from the Arab News and Dawn coverage of al-Kaabi's Financial Times interview, Al Jazeera's Strait of Hormuz reporting, NPR's energy crisis analysis, CNBC's breakdown of country-level exposure, Axios on U.S. economic impact, market intelligence from Kpler, expert analysis from the Stimson Center and International Crisis Group, and CBS News live war coverage.

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