NEED TO KNOW

• "Michael" tracks toward $150M worldwide opening weekend, $85M-plus domestic
• Critics scored film 39% on Rotten Tomatoes; audiences gave it A-minus CinemaScore
• Lionsgate's Adam Fogelson confirms studio prepared for sequel

LOS ANGELES, CA (TDR) — Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" is tracking toward a $150 million worldwide opening weekend, projected to set a new record for the musical biopic genre and rank as the studio's biggest debut since the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The big picture: The Antoine Fuqua-directed feature arrives carrying a reported $200 million production cost and a long development history marked by reshoots, release-date shifts, and script changes.

• Producer Graham King previously made 2018's "Bohemian Rhapsody," still the highest-grossing music biopic at $910 million worldwide
• Jackson's nephew Jaafar Jackson plays the lead in his film debut, with Colman Domingo and Nia Long as Joe and Katherine Jackson
• The film covers Jackson's Jackson 5 years through the 1980s Bad tour, ending before the first abuse allegations surfaced in 1993
• Initial release was set for April 2025, then October 2025, before landing on April 24, 2026

Driving the news: Updated Friday tracking puts domestic opening estimates near $88 million, well above earlier forecasts of $65–70 million.

• International opening day hit $18.5 million across 82 markets, with France and the UK leading at $2.6 million each
• Previews earned $12.6 million, the biggest 2026 preview cume to date
• The film is playing 3,900 North American locations, including 1,600 Imax and premium large-format screens

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What they're saying: The split between critical and audience reception has defined opening week.

• Adam Fogelson, Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chair — "We absolutely have more story to tell. We have prepared for that moment."
• Jaafar Jackson, Lead Actor — "Most importantly, I just hope that my uncle, Michael, is smiling from up above."
• Owen Gleiberman, Variety Critic — Called the film a "surprisingly effective middle-of-the-road biopic"
• Nicholas Barber, BBC News Critic — Gave it one out of five, calling it "a bland and barely competent daytime TV movie"

Yes, but: The film carries headwinds that complicate the opening figures and the studio's longer-term ambitions.

• Critics flagged the decision to end the story before the 1993 abuse allegations as a sanitization of Jackson's full record
• Reshoots after a settlement clause barred dramatization of an accuser pushed budget from $155M to roughly $200M
• Lionsgate's internal target is $700 million worldwide — short of "Bohemian Rhapsody's" $910M ceiling
• Paris Jackson, Michael's daughter, was not involved in the film and described an early script as "sugar-coated"

By the numbers:

• 39% Rotten Tomatoes critics; 96% audience score
• A-minus CinemaScore from opening-night audiences
• 116.2 million teaser-trailer views in 24 hours, a genre record
• 56% female audience; 58% under 35

What's next:

• Final three-day weekend totals expected Sunday
• China opens Friday; India, Bolivia, Pakistan opened Thursday
• Sequel script from John Logan reported in development

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and reporting compiled at Wikipedia.

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