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  • Rubio's Independence Day video told Cubans 22-hour blackouts are "not due to" a US oil blockade
  • Trump's January 29 executive order cut Cuba's main oil supply and threatened tariffs on suppliers
  • Cuba's energy minister said May 13 the island ran out of diesel and fuel oil for power plants

WASHINGTON (TDR) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio recorded a Spanish-language video Wednesday telling Cubans the blackouts crushing the island are not caused by US policy, even as that policy explicitly cut off Cuba's fuel supply four months ago.

The big picture: The administration is running two messages that contradict each other. Officials describe the oil cutoff as deliberate pressure on Havana, while telling Cubans the resulting collapse has nothing to do with Washington.

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Why it matters: Eleven million people are living through 20+ hour blackouts, and the official US position is that the country imposing the blockade bears no responsibility for what it does.

  • UN special rapporteurs condemned what they called an "unlawful blockade" producing "energy starvation"
  • Senator Markey and other Democrats warned of humanitarian crisis and potential refugee surge
  • Cuba's grid suffered an island-wide blackout on March 16

Driving the news: Rubio's video, released on Cuba's 124th Independence Day, offered $100 million in humanitarian aid via the Catholic Church and named the military conglomerate GAESA as the real cause of suffering.

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  • Rubio attributed $18 billion in assets to GAESA and said it controls 70% of the economy
  • The video coincided with reports the Justice Department is preparing to indict 94-year-old Raúl Castro
  • Bloomberg reported the administration has signaled it may "resort to brute force" if pressure fails

What they're saying:

  • Marco Rubio, Secretary of State — "The reason you are forced to survive 22 hours a day without electricity is not due to an oil 'blockade' by the U.S."
  • Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuban President — Urged Washington to lift the blockade as the proximate cause of the energy collapse
  • UN Special Rapporteurs — Called the policy an "unlawful blockade" creating conditions that "cripple the functioning of essential services required for a dignified life"

Yes, but: Rubio's GAESA case has factual ground under it, and pretending otherwise would be its own kind of dishonesty.

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  • Cuba's grid has been decrepit for decades and blackouts predate the 2026 cutoff
  • GAESA's $18 billion in assets while Cubans lacked food and medicine is documented in records obtained by the Miami Herald
  • Cuba's leadership has refused negotiations and blamed Washington for problems predating recent US action

Between the lines: The administration is collapsing the strongest version of its own case. A coherent argument exists that GAESA looted Cuba for decades AND the January cutoff flipped chronic dysfunction into system failure. By denying the blockade's role entirely, Rubio asks Cubans to disbelieve what they see — the credibility problem regime-change messaging cannot afford.

  • The oil cutoff is administration policy, signed by executive order, defended as leverage
  • The same officials now tell those on the receiving end the policy isn't doing what officials said
  • That contradiction makes every other claim harder to trust

What's next:

  • The expected Raúl Castro indictment will test whether US legal pressure moves Havana or hardens it
  • Mexico and other oil suppliers face tariff exposure if they restart shipments
  • A refugee surge toward Florida remains the most likely domestic consequence

If the blockade is leverage strong enough to force a government to its knees, when does economic pressure stop being statecraft and start being collective punishment?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from the U.S. State Department, Bloomberg, The Hill, Al Jazeera, PBS NewsHour, Euronews, Fox 13 Tampa Bay, Daily Caller, CiberCuba, and Sen. Edward Markey's embargo letter

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