NEED TO KNOW

• Trump says a US-Iran settlement signing is expected in Europe this weekend
• Vance will attend the ceremony; Trump confirmed he will not
• Iran's negotiating channel says no memorandum text has been approved

WASHINGTON (TDR) — President Donald Trump announced Thursday that a settlement ending the war with Iran could be signed in Europe this weekend, with Vice President JD Vance attending in his place, hours after a source close to Tehran's negotiating team said no agreement text exists.

The big picture: The announcement capped a 24-hour reversal from escalation to celebration.

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• On Wednesday, Trump threatened "very hard" new strikes and vowed to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal
• By Thursday, he had canceled the planned strikes, saying talks had reached the highest level of Iranian leadership
• US forces had struck Iranian targets two straight days this week after Iran downed an American helicopter

Why it matters: Markets are pricing a peace that one side has not confirmed.

• Trump cited the stock market's 1,000-point jump as proof the parties like the deal
• The reported memorandum would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire, and open 60 days of nuclear talks
• The IRGC said Thursday the strait stays closed until further notice, warning any approaching vessel would be "cooperating with the enemy"

Driving the news: Trump said the final points were approved by "all parties involved," then listed Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. He did not list Iran.

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• He told Fox News he wants the signing held in Switzerland
• He confirmed he will not attend; Vance, who has led the US delegation since April, will
• The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force until documents are finalized

What they're saying: The two capitals described two different Thursdays.

• Donald Trump, US President — "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran."
• Source close to Iran's negotiating team, via Fars — "No text has been approved for an initial memorandum of understanding."

Yes, but: Trump has announced this finish line before, recently.

• In late May, he scheduled a "final determination" meeting on a near-identical memorandum; it ended without a decision
• Fars then accused him of "distortions", including a toll-free Hormuz clause it said was not in the text
• Sticking points reportedly still include Iran's uranium stockpile, frozen assets, and Lebanon

Between the lines: The president who calls this his settlement is putting the vice president's name on the ceremony. If the weekend signing happens, Vance collects the diplomatic credential ahead of any 2028 run. If Tehran never shows, the man who announced the event was never scheduled to be in the room. The arrangement works either way for exactly one person.

What's next:

• Trump said the signing should happen within days, subject to finalizing documents
• Tehran says it will notify Pakistani mediators and the public when a text is actually complete
• Watch whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens on signature, the deal's fastest verifiable test

Which is the bigger gamble — celebrating a peace the other side hasn't confirmed, or dismissing one that might be days away?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from CBS News, CNN, Fox News, Axios, Ynet, Iran International, France 24, and CNBC

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