• Republicans are bracing for another potential Senate retirement as Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa signals uncertainty about her 2026 plans. With three GOP senators already stepping down, Ernst’s possible exit would deepen the party’s challenges heading into a pivotal election year, where Senate control hangs in the balance.

DES MOINES, Iowa (TDR) — A growing number of Republican lawmakers are quietly sounding alarms over the possibility that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) may not seek re-election in 2026, raising concerns about the GOP’s ability to defend yet another open Senate seat in a high-stakes cycle.

Despite initial moves suggesting intent to run—such as hiring a campaign manager and scheduling fundraisers—GOP insiders told Politico they fear Ernst may ultimately step aside. The senator raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025—a sum considered decent but not commanding for an incumbent facing a potentially competitive race.

Ernst’s spokesperson declined to confirm her 2026 intentions, stating only that she remains focused on “making Washington squeal, making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent… and advancing a strong [National Defense Authorization Act].”

Pressure Mounts as Retirements Pile Up

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Ernst’s indecision comes as Republicans grapple with the announced departures of Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who is leaving to pursue Alabama’s governorship. With Senate control at stake, another open seat in a purple state could tilt the balance.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) acknowledged the tension but expressed cautious optimism. “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection,” he said. “Ultimately that’s a decision she’d have to make… I think she’s moving forward.”

Still, according to Politico, Ernst has told colleagues she is genuinely undecided.

Town Hall Backlash Clouds Campaign Optics

Adding to the uncertainty is a recent controversy involving Ernst’s response at a town hall meeting in Iowa. When asked about looming Medicaid cuts, Ernst quipped, “Well, we are all going to die,” a remark that drew criticism even from GOP allies.

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“She made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the Senate understood that, yes, political careers are all going to eventually perish,” wrote commentator Peter Twinklage on X.

Journalist Michael McGough was blunter: “‘We are all going to die’ isn’t a great re-election campaign slogan.”

Can Republicans afford another high-profile departure — or will the Iowa seat become the tipping point in the battle for Senate control?

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