• Katie Wilson leads incumbent Bruce Harrell by just over 1,300 votes
• Late mail-in ballots favored challenger after Harrell’s early 10,000-vote lead evaporated
• Victory would mirror progressive Zohran Mamdani’s upset win in New York City

SEATTLE, Wash. (TDR) — Progressive activist Katie Wilson appears positioned to defeat incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell in Seattle’s mayoral race after mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 4 steadily eroded the mayor’s substantial election-night lead, according to results released Tuesday by King County Elections.

Wilson led Harrell by 1,346 votes with approximately 1,400 ballots remaining to count. The challenger pulled ahead Monday by just 91 votes after trailing by more than 10,000 the day after the election. Harrell has not conceded, though Democratic strategists say it’s unlikely he can overcome the deficit with the dwindling number of ballots left to tally.

Progressive surge follows Seattle pattern

The dramatic comeback follows a familiar pattern in Seattle elections, where younger, more progressive voters often wait until the last minute to submit mail-in ballots. Earlier voters typically skew older and more conservative, frequently making centrist candidates appear victorious on election night before late returns narrow or reverse those margins.

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Wilson, 42, founded the Seattle Transit Riders Union and previously served as a columnist for Cascade PBS. She centered her campaign on Seattle’s lack of affordable housing and high costs for food and child care. The progressive organizer identifies as both a Democrat and a socialist, running on a platform that included taxes on big businesses and higher wages for low-paid workers.

Harrell, a lawyer who served three terms on the Seattle City Council before becoming mayor in 2022, criticized Wilson’s lack of managerial and political experience while highlighting his efforts to improve public safety and hire more police. The incumbent pointed to recent declines in crime rates as evidence his approach was working.

New York City parallels

Wilson’s campaign has been compared to Zohran Mamdani‘s historic victory in New York City, where the 34-year-old democratic socialist defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo by focusing on affordability issues. Both candidates energized progressive voters despite facing well-funded opposition and questions about their governing experience.

“I think affordability is just a key issue for so many people across the country right now,” Wilson told reporters Monday. “I think we’re seeing a new generation of leadership come into office, and I think our next job is to show that we can govern and make progress on the issues that people are facing in their daily lives.”

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The race featured significant outside spending, with a pro-Harrell political action committee raising more than $1.8 million from real estate and business interests. The PAC spent over $1.3 million against Wilson in recent weeks through negative mailers and television advertisements. A PAC supporting Wilson, backed partly by unions representing grocery workers and city employees, spent more than $500,000.

Historic turnout and close margins

With turnout in Seattle topping 55%, the race represents the closest mayoral contest since 2001, when Greg Nickels defeated Mark Sidran by 3,158 votes. Nickels was also the last Seattle mayor to win a second term, accomplishing that feat in 2005.

Both campaigns have pledged ballot-curing efforts to help voters whose ballots were challenged due to signature issues. King County Elections reported receiving approximately 1,800 such ballots. The race remains within the margin for an automatic recount.

The Wilson campaign stopped short of declaring victory Tuesday but expressed confidence. “We want to wait until every vote has been counted, but we believe that we’ve won this race,” the campaign said in a statement. The Harrell campaign acknowledged the unfavorable trend while emphasizing every vote must be counted.

Does the consistent pattern of late progressive surges in Seattle elections suggest the city’s political center has shifted leftward, or does it simply reflect different voting behaviors across demographic groups?

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