• Topic gained 440 million views on Weibo as Chinese users drew parallels to Taiwan situation
• Comments called for Beijing to abandon international law constraints following U.S. precedent
• Analysts warn muted global response could embolden Xi Jinping to consider military action

BEIJING (TDR) — President Donald Trump‘s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro sparked intense discussion across Chinese social media, with users suggesting the military operation provides a template for how Beijing could resolve its tensions with Taiwan through force.

The Venezuela operation shot to the top of China’s Weibo platform late Saturday, generating approximately 440 million views on the Twitter-like service. Commentators quickly drew comparisons between the South American nation’s fate and Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy that Beijing has vowed to claim as part of its territory.

Social Media Calls for Similar Action

Chinese netizens expressed enthusiasm for replicating Trump’s tactics against Taiwan’s government. One Weibo user wrote in a post that received more than 700 likes: “I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future.”

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Another commenter questioned international law constraints, stating: “Since the US doesn’t take international law seriously, why should we care about it?”

More explicit posts called for direct military action against Taiwan’s leadership. One user wrote: “The US imperialists’ lightning raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro and his wife provides a perfect blueprint for our military to launch a surprise attack on Frog Island and seize Lai Ching-te,” using a derogatory term for Taiwan and referencing its president.

Beijing’s Official Response

China’s Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. military action against Venezuela, saying Beijing was “deeply shocked” by Washington’s “blatant use of force against a sovereign state.” The ministry characterized the raid as violating international law and the principles of the UN Charter.

Neil Thomas, who researches Chinese politics at the Asia Society, noted the phrase “deeply shocked” is extremely rare in Chinese official statements, typically reserved for assassinations, terrorism, or major mass-casualty events. The language suggests genuine alarm within China’s government about the precedent set by the operation.

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State media outlet Xinhua News Agency published a commentary condemning the action: “What the US has done has completely ignored the constraints of international law, which has brought the world back to the colonial era of barbaric plunder.”

Strategic Implications for Taiwan

Analysts warned the Venezuela operation could embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping to consider similar military action against Taiwan, particularly if the international response remains muted.

Lyle Morris, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told reporters that Xi could view Trump’s actions as consistent with great powers intervening in neighboring countries for national security reasons, similar to how Beijing perceived Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I don’t think it’s hyperbole to speculate that this opens the window for Xi to contemplate military action toward Taiwan, especially if the global response to the US action is muted.”

Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former American diplomat, predicted Beijing would privately emphasize to Washington that it expects “to be granted the same privileges in terms of exceptions to international law that the US grants itself.”

Military Capability Questions

Some experts questioned whether China’s People’s Liberation Army possesses the capability to execute a Venezuela-style operation. The U.S. strike involved months of intelligence work and deployment of more than 150 aircraft, according to Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine.

Drew Thompson, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said U.S. forces involved likely had extensive experience operating in hostile environments.

“I don’t think the PLA has any experience like that. Beijing has other options for neutralizing Taiwan’s leader.”

Thompson suggested China would have higher success rates with targeted assassinations rather than attempting to replicate the complex military operation that captured Maduro.

China’s Venezuela Stakes

The timing proved particularly awkward for Beijing. Hours before Maduro’s capture, a high-level Chinese delegation met with the Venezuelan leader in Caracas. Special Representative Qiu Xiaoqi reiterated that China and Venezuela are “long-standing strategic partners” and expressed interest in strengthening bilateral ties.

China has become Venezuela’s largest customer for oil exports, which represent approximately 95 percent of the South American nation’s revenue. Venezuela also owes China approximately $10 billion, though payment delays have forced Beijing to reduce further investments.

Margaret Myers, senior advisor of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, said Beijing remains well-positioned to engage with whoever holds power in Venezuela given its substantial investments and the country’s strategic importance.

Taiwan’s Response

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it was “closely monitoring” the Venezuela situation, adding the island would work with the United States and other democratic nations to “jointly contribute to regional and global security, stability and prosperity.”

Lev Nachman, Taipei-based scholar and co-author of “Taiwan: A Contested Democracy Under Threat,” expressed concern about U.S. precedent-setting, saying he was “horrified that the United States continues to take unilateral action against Taiwan.”

Will Trump’s Venezuela operation embolden Beijing to abandon international law constraints and pursue military solutions for Taiwan, or will China calculate that the risks outweigh potential benefits?

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