• Trump announced immediate 25% tariff on all countries conducting business with Iran via Truth Social post
• Policy threatens to disrupt trade with China, India, Turkey and UAE worth billions annually
• Move follows warnings of military intervention if Iranian security forces continue killing protesters

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — President Donald Trump declared Monday that any nation conducting business with Iran will face an immediate 25% tariff on all commerce with the United States, a sweeping economic measure announced as Iranian security forces cracked down on protests that have killed hundreds of demonstrators.

“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This Order is final and conclusive,” the president added, though the White House declined to provide implementation details or specify which countries would be affected.

Major Trading Partners Face Economic Impact

The policy threatens several major economies with substantial Iranian trade ties. China exported $6.2 billion to Iran and imported $2.85 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, excluding oil purchases China doesn’t publicly disclose. Analysts estimate China accounts for more than 90% of Iran’s oil trade, purchased through intermediary refineries to evade sanctions.

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The new tariff could push duties on Chinese goods from 20% to at least 45%, potentially reigniting trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded that “there are no winners in a tariff war, and China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Turkey, United Arab Emirates, India and Brazil also maintain billions in annual trade with Iran. Turkey recorded $5.7 billion in bilateral trade, while UAE reached $6.62 billion in 2024. India totaled $1.34 billion for the first 10 months of 2025, primarily exporting rice, pharmaceuticals and machinery.

Protests Trigger Economic Pressure Campaign

The tariff announcement coincides with widespread demonstrations across Iran that began December 28 over deteriorating economic conditions. Human rights organizations report death tolls ranging from hundreds to potentially more than 12,000 protesters killed, though accurate figures remain difficult to verify due to an internet blackout imposed by Iranian authorities.

Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran against using deadly force, threatening military intervention if killings continue. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran is “ready for war but also for dialogue,” while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that Israeli territories and American bases would be “legitimate targets” if the U.S. attacks.

Implementation Questions and Economic Impact

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Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for imposing tariffs faces Supreme Court review, with a verdict expected later this month. No executive order appeared on the White House website Monday, and Trump did not define what qualifies as “doing business” with Iran.

The tariff strategy represents Trump’s latest effort to economically isolate Tehran. Western sanctions have already battered Iran’s economy, causing high inflation, unemployment and currency collapse. With limited access to international financial markets, reduced export capacity would significantly impact government revenue.

Economic analysts note that countries may seek alternative trading arrangements or circumvent restrictions through intermediaries, potentially limiting the tariffs’ effectiveness. The policy’s success depends largely on enforcement capabilities and whether major economies choose compliance over maintaining Iranian trade relationships.

Deadly Crackdown Continues

Demonstrations have spread to more than 180 cities across Iran’s provinces, evolving from economic grievances into demands for regime change. Iranian authorities cut internet and phone access January 8, immediately after protests reached Tehran. The communications shutdown has isolated the country, making accurate casualty reporting extremely difficult.

Medical sources described overwhelming hospital conditions to CNN, with one witness reporting “bodies piled up on each other” at facilities. Amnesty International documented security forces using rifles, shotguns loaded with metal pellets, water cannon and tear gas against largely peaceful protesters.

Will economic isolation force Tehran to negotiate, or will it strengthen the regime’s resolve against foreign pressure?

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