• Court issued four other decisions Wednesday but did not address tariff challenge facing Trump
• Second delay in less than week leaves markets and businesses in continued uncertainty over refunds
• Case could require federal government to return $130-135 billion already collected from importers

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — The U.S. Supreme Court declined Wednesday to issue its widely anticipated ruling on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, marking the second delay in less than a week and leaving businesses and markets in continued uncertainty over a case that could require the federal government to refund hundreds of billions of dollars.

The justices handed down four other decisions on January 14 but did not address the tariff challenge, with no additional opinion days announced for this week. The court had also passed over the case on January 9, its first opinion day of the year, when many observers expected a decision.

Stakes Involve Massive Refunds

The case challenges Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on trading partners. The 1977 law grants presidents special powers during emergency situations but does not specifically authorize tariffs as a remedy.

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Estimates vary on potential refunds if the court rules against Trump. JPMorgan analysts cited $135 billion in potential tariff refunds at stake, while other financial institutions project the figure could reach $130 billion based on duties collected since April 2025. Tariffs brought in approximately $195 billion in fiscal 2025 and another $62 billion so far in 2026, according to Treasury data.

Trump himself has warned of catastrophic consequences if the court rules against his tariff authority. “If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!” he wrote on Truth Social, estimating that “many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars” or even “Trillions” were at stake. “It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay.”

Lower Courts Ruled Against Trump

Both the Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit have held that IEEPA does not authorize the imposition of tariffs. Those rulings are now before the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments on November 5, 2025.

During those arguments, justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s authority to unilaterally impose tariffs. Both conservative- and liberal-leaning justices asked critical questions about whether “regulate importation” as used in IEEPA equates to the power to levy taxes.

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The case, formally known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, stems from challenges brought by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 U.S. states, most Democratic-governed.

Businesses File for Refunds

Major companies have already filed lawsuits seeking refunds if the justices ultimately strike down the tariffs. Costco, Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods and the maker of Ray-Ban have sued the federal government in recent weeks.

In late December, the Court of International Trade adopted a blanket order automatically staying all actions seeking IEEPA refunds until the Supreme Court issues its decision. The CIT indicated it would set out “appropriate next steps” after the Supreme Court ruling.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury has sufficient funds to cover refunds if necessary but expressed doubt businesses would pass those refunds to consumers. “Costco, who’s suing the US government, are they going to give the money back to their clients?” Bessent told Reuters.

Delay May Signal Court Divisions

JPMorgan analysts Amy Ho and Joyce Chang suggested the delay could work in Trump’s favor. “Legal experts continue to expect the Supreme Court to rule against the use of emergency powers to authorize tariffs, but note that each week the Supreme Court delays its decision increases the likelihood of the Trump administration prevailing,” they wrote.

The analysts noted that historically, the Supreme Court reserves its most impactful decisions for the end of its term in June, allowing for extended deliberation. Both Supreme Court cases on the Affordable Care Act were pushed to June.

However, prediction markets site Kalshi showed only a 28% probability the court will rule in favor of the tariffs as implemented.

Alternative Tariff Authorities Available

Bessent has stated the administration has at least three other options through the 1962 Trade Act that would keep most tariffs in place even if the court rules against IEEPA authority. These include Section 232 national security provisions and Section 301 unfair trade practice authorities.

“What is not in doubt is our ability to continue collecting tariffs at roughly the same level,” Bessent said during an appearance in Minneapolis. “What is in doubt was the president loses flexibility to use tariffs both for national security, for negotiating leverage.”

Market Impact Remains Uncertain

Morgan Stanley analysts noted the court “has wide latitude when it comes to issuing decisions,” with multiple possible outcomes including narrowing the scope of existing tariffs without mandating full removal or limiting future application.

The court has not announced when it will next issue opinions but could schedule more decisions on Tuesday or Wednesday next week when justices are again in session.

Will the Supreme Court’s continued delay signal internal disagreement over limiting presidential tariff authority?

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