• Steve Bannon told War Room viewers that MAGA base voters are saying they're just not feeling it heading into the 2026 midterm elections
• Big Data Poll shows Democrats holding a 53.6% to 41.8% advantage among voters who are extremely enthusiastic about voting in 2026
• Rasmussen head pollster Mark Mitchell blamed the administration's sidelining of DOGE and unfocused governing posture for the enthusiasm collapse

WASHINGTON, DC (TDR) — Steve Bannon isn't sounding like a man who thinks his side is winning. The former adviser to President Donald Trump delivered a blunt warning on his War Room podcast Saturday, telling fellow conservatives that Republican enthusiasm has cratered heading into what could be a defining midterm cycle.

"You have a massive lack of enthusiasm among the base. Because they're sitting there going 'I'm just not feelin' it right now.'"

What makes the warning particularly noteworthy is who's delivering it. Bannon isn't a moderate Republican hand-wringing about the party's direction — he's one of the architects of the MAGA movement itself. And he's not relying on gut instinct. He pointed to conservative-aligned pollsters whose data paints a troubling picture for Republicans nine months before voters head to the polls.

The Numbers Behind Bannon's Warning

The data Bannon cited comes from two pollsters with deep credibility among conservative audiences. Rich Baris, who runs Big Data Poll and is known in conservative media as "the People's Pundit," published his January 2026 Public Polling Project results showing Democrats have opened a commanding enthusiasm advantage. Among voters who describe themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in 2026, Democrats lead 53.6% to 41.8% — a gap that has widened since December.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 46.1% to 42.0% among likely voters without leaners, and that edge stretches to 48.2% vs. 44.2% when undecided voters are leaned. Among those "certain to vote," the Democratic advantage widens further to 51.9% vs. 43.4%.

"If Republicans are going to experience a comeback, something has got to change sooner rather than later."

That was Baris' own assessment in his January polling release — language that amounts to a five-alarm fire from a pollster who has spent years building trust with the conservative base by challenging what he considers biased mainstream polling.

The second pollster Bannon referenced, Mark Mitchell, heads polling at Rasmussen Reports — a firm that has historically produced more favorable numbers for Republican candidates than most national polls. Mitchell wrote in The New York Post last week that Trump's approval has dropped because the administration abandoned the very initiatives that energized his coalition.

"Rather than doubling down on systemic accountability, the last few months have felt unfocused, with counter-signaling on affordability and jobs, infighting, the Epstein saga, renewed foreign entanglements and a governing posture that feels reactive rather than intentional. Voters are noticing."

The DOGE Effect: What Went Wrong

Mitchell's analysis offers a specific diagnosis that goes beyond generic midterm anxiety. He has argued for months that Trump's approval peaked alongside public interest in DOGE — the Department of Government Efficiency initiative that once enjoyed broad public support. When DOGE was making headlines with disclosures about government waste, Trump's approval among voters under 40 briefly hit 60%. Public polling showed roughly 70% of Americans were angry about waste, fraud and abuse in federal spending.

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Then, according to Mitchell, DOGE was quietly sidelined. Trump's approval among younger voters subsequently fell sharply into the low 40s. Rasmussen's own daily tracker showed the president hitting a second-term low of 41% approval and 57% disapproval earlier this week — numbers that would have been unthinkable from the conservative-leaning firm a year ago.

"Trump thinks that winning is enough, but it's not. It has to be about accountability."

That quote, from Mitchell in a July 2025 appearance on The Alex Jones Show, previewed the argument he's been making with increasing urgency. The Republican coalition that delivered Trump a decisive 2024 victory, he warns, does not automatically transfer to midterm candidates who haven't earned those voters' trust independently.

Multiple Polls Tell the Same Story

The warnings from Baris and Mitchell are not outliers. A Quinnipiac University poll released this week found Trump at just 37% approval against 56% disapproval — his lowest net score in the series this term. Republican net approval of Trump fell from +90 points in October to +76 points in early February, a rare and notable drop in intraparty support.

A Marist Poll found Democrats holding a 14-point lead on the generic midterm ballot. The Economist/YouGov tracker shows Trump at a net approval of -15. Even a Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin — the swingiest of swing states — found only 36% approve of Trump on the economy and 28% on inflation.

The concern is not purely academic. Democrats have already notched a major special election victory in Texas, flipping a state Senate seat in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. That result prompted Senate Majority Leader John Thune to acknowledge Republicans need to "up our game."

"The problem is bigger than they think it is. Because working folks have been left behind, and we need to start finding creative ways to lower costs and help folks out in this economy."

That was Taylor Rehmet, the Democrat who won the Texas special election, characterizing what he heard from voters across the district.

Texas Becomes the Proving Ground

Bannon singled out Texas as a state where Democratic gains are particularly alarming for the GOP. The March 3 Texas primary features a bruising Republican Senate race between incumbent John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — a contest that has exposed deep fissures between the party's establishment and hard-right factions.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are competing for a chance that once seemed remote: a genuinely competitive U.S. Senate race in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

"We have an opportunity to make big gains like we might not have in a long, long time."

That was state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Texas, reflecting the party's growing confidence.

The Counterargument: It's Early

Not everyone in conservative circles agrees the picture is as bleak as Bannon suggests. Some critics, including a detailed analysis in American Thinker, have pushed back on Baris' increasingly dire warnings, questioning whether his commentary has become "shaped more by blinding rage than empirical reality." That piece noted that some late-2025 polls — including a Reuters/Ipsos survey — showed the generic ballot nearly tied.

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The RNC has also dismissed the negative polling environment. RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels told Newsweek that Trump has "lowered prices, secured the border, and ensured workers keep more of their hard-earned pay," and claimed Republicans are "on offense nationwide heading into 2026."

"73 percent of voters disapprove of how Democrats in Congress are doing their job."

That was the RNC's framing — attempting to redirect attention toward Democratic weaknesses rather than Republican enthusiasm gaps.

Historical precedent also provides some comfort for Republicans. Midterm polling nine months before Election Day has limited predictive value, and the party's fortunes could shift significantly depending on economic conditions, legislative accomplishments and whether the administration recalibrates its focus.

What Both Sides Agree On

Where conservative and progressive analysts converge is on the stakes. Both acknowledge that Trump's coalition — built on high turnout from low-propensity voters who showed up specifically for him — faces a structural challenge in a midterm where Trump isn't on the ballot.

Baris put it directly in a recent post: the non-college voters who powered Trump's margins in 2024 showed up in presidential-year numbers that far exceeded their 2022 midterm participation. Replicating that turnout without Trump at the top of the ticket is a problem Republicans have struggled with since 2018.

"Trump Coalition voters have never seen the Republican Party in the same light, and the hard truth is that they have done little to earn their trust, or to generate support and excitement among these voters."

Democrats, meanwhile, face their own challenge: converting enthusiasm into actual seats in a gerrymandered map where structural advantages still favor Republicans in many districts. High polling leads don't automatically translate to House or Senate majorities.

With nine months until the midterms, does Bannon's alarm represent an early warning that Republican leaders can still act on — or the first sign of a structural enthusiasm gap that no amount of messaging can close?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Mediaite's coverage of Bannon's War Room remarks, Big Data Poll's January 2026 Public Polling Project results, Mark Mitchell's analysis in RealClearPolitics, Newsweek's reporting on Trump's approval rating hitting a second-term low with Rasmussen and declining Republican support in Quinnipiac polling, CNN's reporting on the Texas special election, Axios' analysis of Republican warning signs in multiple polls, Newsweek's coverage of Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell's concerns, American Thinker's critique of Big Data Poll's methodology, The Texas Tribune's Q&A with Democratic Senate candidates, and Ballotpedia's overview of the Texas Senate race.

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