• Harris County early voting jumped 73% over 2022 and 35% over 2024 presidential primary levels in the first two days alone
• Democrats outpaced Republicans by roughly 13,000 votes statewide in the first three days, with nearly 65,000 Democratic ballots cast by first-time primary voters
• The Cornyn-Paxton Senate showdown, a controversial mid-decade redistricting map and competitive gubernatorial primaries are fueling participation across party lines

AUSTIN, TX (TDR) — Texas voters are flooding early voting locations at rates that are outpacing both the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential primary cycles, turning the state’s March 3 primary election into an early measuring stick for the national political mood heading into November’s midterms.

In Harris County, the state’s most populous, 45,724 voters cast ballots in the first two days of early voting — a 73% increase over the same period in 2022 and a 35.5% jump over 2024. Travis County’s numbers are even more striking, with 22,314 ballots in two days representing a 196% increase over the last midterm cycle and a 116% increase over the presidential primary.

“We’re living in a really polarizing time, so the time people had the chance to express their feelings politically was the election in 2024,” said Dr. Paul Fabrizio, a political analyst who noted the nationalization of local races. “We’re seeing a nationalization of politics.”

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The surge is not confined to urban strongholds. Smaller counties are seeing similar spikes. Taylor County doubled its early voting turnout compared to 2022, while Jefferson County reported a 49% increase on the first day alone. Cameron County officials told local media they anticipate “presidential level primary numbers” for what is traditionally a lower-turnout gubernatorial cycle.

Senate Race Driving Texas Primary Turnout

The headline contest fueling participation on both sides is the Republican Senate primary, where incumbent John Cornyn faces a fierce challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Recent polling from the University of Houston’s Hobby School showed Paxton leading at 38% to Cornyn’s 31%, with Hunt at 17% and 12% undecided.

“He has adopted the Washington mentality, the Washington swamp, and he is not one of us,” Paxton said of Cornyn while campaigning in Allen, Texas. “It is time, no matter what, for John Cornyn to come home, and we’re gonna beat him in two weeks.”

The race has become a proxy battle between the GOP establishment and its hard-right flank. The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has poured millions into defending Cornyn. Meanwhile, all three candidates have competed aggressively for President Donald Trump’s endorsement, though Trump has said only that he supports “all three.”

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Brian Smith, a professor of political science at St. Edward’s University, pointed to the competitive dynamics across party lines.

“What we’re seeing with the Republicans here [is] somebody conservative, Cornyn, running against somebody who’s very conservative, and that helps Paxton in the primaries, but he might have a more difficult time in the general election,” Smith said.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a competitive primary that has drawn national attention. Crockett leads in the UH poll at 47% to Talarico’s 39%, though other surveys show a tighter race.

“I am tired of people asking if I am electable. We know that it is nothing but a dog whistle,” Crockett said at a recent press conference, invoking former Gov. Ann Richards. “We know that if we know the history of Texas, the same type of people told Ann Richards she wasn’t electable because she was a woman.”

Talarico has positioned himself as a bridge-builder, gaining viral attention after CBS executives reportedly pulled a Stephen Colbert interview over FCC concerns.

“The real fight in this country is not left versus right. It’s top versus bottom,” Talarico said during a January debate. “We will not win this race in November with the same old politics of division.”

New Congressional Map Adds Fuel to Texas Primary

Adding another layer of urgency is the controversial mid-decade redistricting that reshaped Texas’ 38 congressional districts. Pushed through the state legislature at the White House’s urging in August 2025, the new map targets five Democratic-held seats and has been widely criticized as a partisan gerrymander. The Texas House passed the maps on an 88-52 party-line vote, and Gov. Greg Abbott signed them into law.

The redraw forced several incumbent Democrats to either switch districts or face dramatically altered electorates. Reps. Marc Veasey, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Greg Casar all saw their districts fundamentally redrawn. The result: 59 contested primaries statewide — 32 Democratic and 28 Republican — the highest number of House candidates in Texas since 2014.

Non-partisan advocacy groups have tried to capitalize on the energy. The organization March Matters is partnering with businesses, faith leaders and organizations to boost primary engagement.

“Voting is a matter of faith,” said Bee Moorhead, executive director of Texas Impact, a faith-based advocacy network. “In recent years we have seen faith leaders take on a role to educate their congregations to get out and vote.”

What The Numbers Actually Show

The early data offers something for both parties to claim — and reasons for each to worry.

Democrats have edged Republicans in raw statewide early vote totals, with 165,453 Democratic ballots to 160,985 Republican ballots in the first two days. Perhaps more significant: nearly 65,000 Democratic primary ballots came from voters who had never previously voted in a primary election.

That aligns with what analysts describe as a fired-up Democratic base frustrated with the Trump administration’s second term. Democrats also recently flipped a state Senate seat in a Fort Worth-area district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 — a result that sent shockwaves through both parties.

But Republicans caution against reading too much into raw primary totals. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and Gov. Abbott holds a steady 50-42 lead over likely Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in general election polling. The fierce GOP Senate primary is also driving Republican turnout, particularly in smaller, more conservative counties.

Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson announced 18.7 million registered voters for this cycle — but as KUT noted, the 2022 primaries drew just 3 million Texans, or 17% of those registered. Whether the current surge sustains through the final days of early voting on Feb. 27 and Election Day on March 3 will determine whether this cycle genuinely breaks the pattern.

Does a primary turnout surge in the nation’s second-largest state reflect a lasting shift in voter engagement — or a momentary spike driven by high-profile intra-party battles that won’t carry into November?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Nexstar’s coverage of Texas early voting numbers, CBS Austin’s reporting on Travis County turnout, CNN’s analysis of the Texas Senate primaries, PBS NewsHour’s midterm preview, the Texas Tribune’s Senate polling report, the University of Houston Hobby School primary survey, official data from the Texas Secretary of State, reporting by KUT Radio on primary elections, Taylor County turnout data from KTAB, Jefferson County figures from The Examiner, and Roll Call’s overview of key Texas congressional races.

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