NEED TO KNOW

• Senior Emirati commentator publicly urges closing US military bases on UAE soil
• UAE absorbed nearly 400 ballistic missiles and 1,800-plus drones from Iran since February
• Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets have lost $120 billion since Israeli-US strikes on Iran began

ABU DHABI (TDR) — A senior Emirati commentator tied to the UAE's leadership is publicly urging Abu Dhabi to close American military bases on its soil, arguing the Iran war proved the Gulf state can defend itself.

The big picture: Washington's Gulf security architecture is taking its heaviest fire in decades — and the allies paying for it are openly questioning its value.

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• The US runs at least 19 sites across the Middle East, eight permanent
• About 3,500 US troops sit in the UAE, including at al-Dhafra airbase

Why it matters: If a flagship Gulf partner decides US basing invites attack rather than deters it, the post-1991 American security umbrella is on the table.

• Gulf monarchies host most of US Central Command's regional footprint
• A UAE pullback pressures Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait to reassess

Driving the news: Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE University political scientist read as a leadership-adjacent voice, posted the comments to X on Sunday.

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• He repeated remarks he first gave to Reuters earlier that day
• Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, UAE University — "The UAE no longer needs America to defend it, as it has proven during the Iranian aggression that it is capable of defending itself with distinction."
• Abdulla wants Abu Dhabi to keep buying US weapons but stop hosting US forces

What they're saying: The post drew immediate pushback, exposing a live Emirati debate over what Washington is worth.

• Nadim Koteich, Emirati commentator — "Washington has proven a reliable ally across every vertical that matters, and nowhere more visibly than during this war."
• Koteich argued the relationship spans technology, finance and energy beyond basing
• Abdulla, UAE University — "Time has come to review the value added of the US bases to our national defence portfolio."

Yes, but: Abdulla's defense claim is selective.

• Iran fired 398 ballistic missiles, 1,872 drones and 15 cruise missiles at the UAE by late March
• US Patriot and THAAD batteries plus French assets at al-Dhafra carried part of the intercept load
• Debris still hit Burj Al Arab, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai airport and the Fujairah oil zone

Between the lines: This is not a rogue academic. The timing reads like a trial balloon — Abu Dhabi testing publicly what it has signaled privately.

• The Wall Street Journal reported the UAE barred US strikes from al-Dhafra against Iraq or Yemen months before the war
• US aircraft were relocated to Al Udeid in Qatar
• Hosting US firepower now reads as an Iranian targeting menu, not a deterrent

What's next:

• Whether Emirati officials endorse, dispute or ignore Abdulla's framing
• Pentagon regional posture review with UAE basing as a core input
• Saudi and Qatari reactions will signal if this stays one country's argument

If hosting a superpower's military makes you a bigger target, is the alliance protecting you or using you?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting by Middle East Eye, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and Middle East Monitor, public statements on X from Abdulkhaleq Abdulla and Nadim Koteich, and background data from the Council on Foreign Relations.

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