NEED TO KNOW

• US share of European NATO arms imports fell from 64% to 58% in one year
• South Korea, Israel, and France absorbed most of the redirected spending
• Denmark's $9.1B SAMP/T pick over Patriot signals where the trend is heading

STOCKHOLM (TDR) — European NATO members cut their share of arms imports from the United States by six percentage points in a single reporting cycle, according to new SIPRI data released March 9.

The big picture: The world's most lucrative arms market is rebalancing in real time. Allies who once bought American almost reflexively are now writing checks elsewhere, and the suppliers cashing them are mostly outside Washington's control.

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• US share dropped from 64% in 2020-24 to 58% in 2021-25, per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data
• South Korea climbed to 8.6%, Israel to 7.7%, France to 7.4%

Why it matters: US foreign arms sales support hundreds of thousands of American manufacturing jobs and finance the production runs that keep domestic stockpiles affordable. When allies diversify, the math on US defense industrial capacity gets harder.

• The European Union's ReArm Europe plan targets up to €800 billion in defense spending explicitly prioritizing European suppliers
• US delivery delays are accelerating the shift, with Switzerland's Patriot order pushed four to five years and the Netherlands rushing orders to avoid 2033 slots

Driving the news: Denmark's September 2025 decision to buy the French-Italian SAMP/T system over the Patriot crystallized what SIPRI's spreadsheet showed in aggregate.

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• Copenhagen committed roughly $9.1 billion to eight medium- and long-range systems, with SAMP/T as the long-range backbone
• The US had pitched a $8.5 billion Patriot package; Denmark passed
• Denmark becomes the first EU export customer for SAMP/T NG, with deliveries starting 2028

What they're saying: The framing on both sides has hardened past diplomatic euphemism.

• Rasmus Jarlov, Danish Parliamentary Defense Committee chairman — "Buying American weapons is a security risk that we cannot run."
• Lt. Gen. Per Pugholm Olsen, Danish MoD acquisition chief — "Delivery timelines are longer" for US systems
• Katarina Djokic, SIPRI researcher — Reliance on US imports varies sharply by category, with combat aircraft driving most of the volume

Yes, but: The headline number understates how locked-in Europe still is on big-ticket American hardware.

• Twelve European countries had 466 F-35 fighters on order or preselected by end of 2025
• Combat aircraft and long-range air defense remain dominated by US suppliers, with European industry years away from competing on volume

Between the lines: This is what happens when transactional foreign policy meets a multi-decade procurement cycle. Capitals that bought American for interoperability now read every Trump-era threat as a signal to hedge: Greenland, Article 5 ambivalence, redirected munitions to the Iran campaign. The hedge is showing up in the data because the buyers writing it down don't expect the political weather to change.

What's next:

• France, Italy, and the SAMP/T NG production line face pressure to scale before European demand exceeds capacity
• US officials are flagging Patriot delivery delays to European customers tied to Iran-war stockpile demands
• Brussels' 65% "Buy European" target for defense procurement could lock in further redirection
• The next SIPRI five-year window will show whether 58% holds or keeps falling

If American defense jobs depend on selling to allies the White House keeps insulting, who pays when the orders stop coming?

Sources

This report was compiled using information from Defense News, SIPRI, Breaking Defense, CSIS analysis, and reporting by The Defense Post.

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