NEED TO KNOW

• Trump confirmed Monday he'll discuss Taiwan arms sales with Xi at Thursday's Beijing summit.
• Eight senators urged Trump to notify a delayed $14 billion arms package before the trip.
• Taiwan's Legislative Yuan approved a $25 billion special defense budget Friday.

WASHINGTON (TDR) — President Trump confirmed Monday he will raise US arms sales to Taiwan directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Thursday's summit in Beijing, an opening that bipartisan senators warn could turn Taiwan's defense into a bargaining chip.

The big picture: A $14 billion arms package pre-approved by Congress in January 2025 has sat on the State Department's desk for months, reportedly to avoid antagonizing Beijing.

Freedom-Loving Beachwear by Red Beach Nation - Save 10% With Code RVM10

• The package has been delayed for months over concern it would anger Xi
• White House officials directed the hold to ensure a successful Xi meeting, sources told the Inquirer
• Trump has shown greater ambivalence toward Taiwan in his second term, despite December's $11 billion package

Why it matters: Beijing calls Taiwan "the biggest point of risk" with the US, and softening US support is what Xi structured the summit to extract.

• Taiwan's Legislative Yuan approved $25 billion in defense spending Friday, below the $40 billion sought
• The pending $14 billion includes surface-to-air missiles and counter-drone systems Taiwan needs against a Chinese assault
• Brookings' Patricia Kim says Taiwan is among the top three items on Trump's Beijing agenda
• China launched blockade drills around Taiwan in December

Driving the news: Eight senators, six Democrats and two Republicans, sent Trump a letter Friday urging him to notify the $14 billion package.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE THE DUPREE REPORT

• The bipartisan letter was led by Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen and Sen. Thom Tillis
• The New York Times reports Xi is poised to lecture Trump on US support for Taiwan, especially weapons sales
• Trump told reporters that "President Xi would like us not to" make the sales, calling it one of many discussion items
• Trump arrives Wednesday accompanied by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg

What they're saying:

• Senators Shaheen, Tillis, et al. — "America's support for Taiwan is inviolable. American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation."
• Donald Trump, US President — "I don't think it'll happen. I think we'll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi."
• Bonnie Glaser, German Marshall Fund — Any rhetorical softening from Trump would be "the most destabilizing outcome" of the summit.

Yes, but: Trump framed Xi's preference, not Taiwan's defense, as the operative consideration. The senators' letter exists because they read that as a signal the administration is open to trading.

• Bloomberg reports Trump's openness risks undermining America's longstanding support for the island
• Senators alluded Trump is violating a longstanding commitment not to consult Beijing on Taiwan arms decisions
• Taiwan's $25 billion defense vote was contingent on US weapons being actually delivered, not just authorized

Between the lines: The summit structure favors Beijing whether Trump notifies the package or not. Approve the $14 billion before the trip and he arrives with stronger leverage but eliminates the carrot. Hold it and he gives Xi the deference Beijing demanded just by waiting. The bipartisan letter is a warning shot from a Senate that remembers Trump's first-term pattern of treating allied commitments as transactional. The senators aren't asking him to refuse to discuss Taiwan. They're asking him to publicly close off using Taiwan's defense as currency. That distinction is what Beijing is watching for.

What's next:

• The Trump-Xi summit runs Thursday and Friday in Beijing
• Notification of the $14 billion package is the leading indicator of administration intent
• Taiwan's strategic significance extends to semiconductors, a second negotiating axis
• Jimmy Lai's release is the secondary ask Trump has signaled

If Taiwan's defense is "inviolable," why is its arms package the first thing on the summit agenda?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from Al Jazeera, CNBC, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Washington Examiner, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Human Events, WVXU, and the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Freedom-Loving Beachwear by Red Beach Nation - Save 10% With Code RVM10