NEED TO KNOW

• Pakistan's petroleum minister says crude stocks cover only 5 to 7 days, refined fuel 20 to 21.
• Oil industry asked the State Bank to extend a war-risk import facility that expired May 10.
• India holds 60 to 70 days of combined commercial and strategic reserves by comparison.

ISLAMABAD, PK (TDR) — Pakistan's petroleum minister has publicly acknowledged the country holds no strategic oil reserves and only five to seven days of crude on hand, exposing a sovereign vulnerability as the Iran war disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture: A war the United States chose to fight is now stress-testing the supply chains of import-dependent partners who never had a vote. Pakistan, which imports more than 80% of its oil, is at the front of that line.

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• Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik told Samaa TV the country has "no strategic oil reserves," only commercial stocks, per The Federal.
• Brent crude has crossed $120 per barrel and Pakistan's oil import bill for July 2025 through February 2026 already hit $10.71 billion.

Why it matters: A 5-to-7 day crude buffer means any sustained shipping disruption translates directly into pump shortages, food inflation, and political instability in a nuclear-armed state of 240 million.

• The World Bank expects global energy prices to surge 24% in 2026.
• Pakistan's IMF program limits fiscal flexibility; Malik said Islamabad already shifted fuel levies and negotiated a levy reduction of 80 rupees per litre.

Driving the news: Pakistan's oil industry asked the State Bank to extend a temporary import-relaxation facility that expired May 10, citing high war-risk insurance and elevated freight rates.

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• The Oil Companies Advisory Council representing three dozen firms requested a two-month extension, ProPakistani reported.
• Sharif's government has ordered a four-day workweek and school closures since March to conserve fuel, Al Jazeera reported.

What they're saying:

• Ali Pervaiz Malik, Petroleum Minister — "We don't have any strategic oil reserves. We only have commercial reserves."
• Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister — "The entire region is currently in a state of war."
• Amer Zafar Durrani, Reenergia CEO — "Without these structural changes, every global energy shock will continue to threaten Pakistan's economy."

Yes, but: Pakistan's vulnerability is not solely a function of the war. Successive governments declined to build strategic reserves over decades, and the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has stalled for years under sanctions pressure and policy hesitation.

• An LNG cargo from Qatar arrived at Port Qasim Monday, easing immediate gas pressure.
• IEEFA notes Pakistan was actually running an LNG surplus as recently as January because of rigid long-term contracts.

Between the lines: Washington frames the Iran war as a contained conflict with manageable costs. The cost is real, just externalized. Third-country exposure of this magnitude in a nuclear-armed state is the kind of second-order risk that war planning routinely understates and that Congress is not being asked to weigh. A few weeks of pump shortages in Karachi is not a Washington line item, but it is a Washington consequence.

What's next:

• The State Bank's decision on extending the import facility will set the operating window for Pakistan's refiners.
• Continued Strait of Hormuz disruption past a few weeks would force Islamabad into harder rationing or IMF renegotiation, even as the IEA tracks its largest-ever coordinated stock releases.
• Whether Trump's Xi summit produces any movement on the ceasefire remains the immediate variable.

If the cost of a US war lands hardest on countries that never had a seat at the table, what does "limited war" actually mean?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from The Federal, Al Jazeera, ProPakistani, CNBC, NewsX, Pakistan Today, Modern Diplomacy, IEEFA, IEA, and Daily Pakistan.

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