NEED TO KNOW

• Trump cites stock market records as gas averages above $4 per gallon nationally.
• Quinnipiac poll: 65% of voters blame Trump for the price spike.
• Bottom half of Americans owns roughly 1% of all stocks, per Fed data.

RANDALLSTOWN, MD (TDR) — President Donald Trump is responding to pump pain by pointing voters toward Wall Street records, a message that lands differently depending on whether you own equities.

The big picture: Trump's economic pitch has split into two tracks: stock market triumphalism for the asset-holding class, "could be worse" for everyone else. The split shows up in polling.

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• AAA's national gas average sat above $4 per gallon through April, peaking near $4.45 on May 3 before easing.
• The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,230.12 capping a 10% April rally.
• Quinnipiac found 65% of voters blame Trump "a lot" or "some" for the spike, with 73% of independents blaming him.

Why it matters: Most Americans don't experience the stock market as their economy. Pump prices and grocery receipts do.

• Energy prices rose 10.9% in March alone, driving annual inflation to 3.3%.
• Real wages fell 0.6% in March as earnings lagged.
• Gallup pegs stock ownership at 62% of adults, but ownership skews sharply by income.

Driving the news: Trump has repeatedly framed the economy as strong by citing equity markets, even while acknowledging gas may stay elevated through the midterms.

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• April 16: "The stock market's up, everything's doing really well," Trump told reporters when asked about gas prices.
• On Fox Business, Trump told Maria Bartiromo "we are doing so well," citing a resilient stock market.
• He also called inflation "fake" because it was driven by energy.

What they're saying:

• Whit Ayres, conservative pollster — "Based on the perception of American consumers, the economy has not gotten better, and inflation has gotten worse."
• Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist — "Household wealth is highly concentrated and becoming steadily more concentrated."
• Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary — "Look at how gas prices decreased over the past year since this president was in office."

Yes, but: Trump ran in 2024 on a promise to get gas below $2 per gallon within 12 months. Eighteen months in, the pump average is roughly double that, and the administration's defense reaches a shrinking share of the electorate the longer prices stay elevated.

• Trump's approval has sunk below 40%, with voters trusting Democrats more on the economy for the first time since 2010.
• Voters say 65-25 that Trump worsened economic conditions.

Between the lines: The stock-market-as-economy frame has an audience problem the math makes explicit. Gallup puts stock ownership at 62% of adults, but the Federal Reserve shows the top 10% holds 87% of equity value while the bottom half owns about 1%. When a president cites the S&P to a voter at a $4.45 pump, the gap between message and felt experience widens with every record close. Neither party invented this asymmetry; equity wealth concentration accelerated through the 2010s under both administrations. Trump is the first to make it the centerpiece of midterm reassurance.

What's next:

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright has signaled prices may stay above $3 through 2027.
• November midterms test whether the asset-class message holds the GOP coalition.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a virtual standstill, keeping a price floor under oil.

If the stock market sets records while wages and pump prices move the other way, whose economy is the president describing?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from CNBC, CNN, The Christian Science Monitor, CBS News, TheStreet, 24/7 Wall St., Newsweek, Quinnipiac University, and U.S. Bank

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