NEED TO KNOW

• Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn one week before the May 26 Texas runoff.
• Senate GOP leadership pushed Cornyn; Murkowski went public against the move.
• Paxton polls in a dead heat with Democrat James Talarico; Cornyn led by 1 point.

WASHINGTON (TDR) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term Sen. John Cornyn, overriding months of pleading from Senate Republican leadership in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1994.

The big picture: The endorsement landed during early voting, one week before the May 26 runoff, and over the explicit objections of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his political operation.

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• Thune and Senate GOP allies spent tens of millions on advertising backing Cornyn.
• Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said on the record: "How does that help strengthen the president's hand when we lose a state like Texas?"
• A Cornyn-allied memo flagged 9 U.S. House districts and 25 Texas state House seats at risk if Paxton tops the November ticket.

Why it matters: Cornyn outpolls Paxton against Democratic nominee James Talarico, and the math is tighter than Republicans have seen in a Texas Senate race in a generation.

• A Texas Southern University poll released Monday showed Cornyn-Talarico at 45-44 and Paxton-Talarico tied 45-45.
• An earlier Texas Politics Project survey had Talarico ahead of Cornyn by 7 points and Paxton by 8 among registered voters.
• Cook Political Report still rates the seat "likely Republican," but Democrats have outraised both Republicans on the runoff ballot.

Driving the news: Paxton arrived at the endorsement with extensive baggage Cornyn's campaign spent the runoff highlighting.

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• Paxton was impeached by the Texas House on 20 articles in 2023, acquitted on 16 by the state Senate, and faced a 2015 securities fraud indictment he settled in 2024.
• Eight senior aides reported him to the FBI in 2020 over alleged bribery; whistleblowers later won $6.6 million in retaliation claims.
• His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce on "biblical grounds."

What they're saying:

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska — "How does that help strengthen the president's hand when we lose a state like Texas?"
• Steve Bannon, Paxton ally — "This is as much a vote of no confidence in John Thune as it is a vote of confidence in Ken Paxton."

Yes, but: Paxton has consistently led recent runoff polling among Republican primary voters, and Trump's primary endorsement record this cycle has been formidable.

• All but five Trump-endorsed candidates won outright or faced no challenger in March's Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas primaries.
• A University of Houston poll had Paxton up 3 points before Trump weighed in.
• Senate Republicans projecting general-election anxiety may be reading suburban concerns the GOP runoff electorate doesn't share.

Between the lines: The endorsement reveals what Trump's coalition can no longer reconcile. Senate Republicans need general-election math to hold a majority. Trump needs primary loyalty to maintain leverage over Senate Republicans. Those two imperatives now point at different candidates in the same race, and the Thune-Trump friction over the Anti-Weaponization Fund and the White House ballroom money made the conflict personal. The party that produced the endorsement is not the party that has to defend the seat in November.

What's next:

• Texas runoff voting ends Friday; Election Day is Tuesday, May 26.
• Wesley Hunt, the third-place March finisher, endorsed Paxton hours after Trump did.
• Democratic outside spending on Talarico is expected to spike if Paxton wins the runoff.

If the party that nominated a candidate doesn't think he can win the general, who's responsible when the seat flips, the voters who picked him or the leader who endorsed him?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from NBC News, CNN, Axios, NPR, TIME, The Texas Tribune, Texas Public Radio, PBS NewsHour, KHOU, and the Deseret News

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