NEED TO KNOW

• NRSC deleted 2025 statements calling Paxton's conduct "repulsive" and accusing him of tax fraud
• Cook moved the Texas Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican within minutes
• UT/TPP poll had Talarico up 8 points over Paxton head-to-head before the runoff

WASHINGTON (TDR) — The National Republican Senatorial Committee quietly removed statements attacking Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after he defeated Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday's runoff, erasing the party's own case against its new nominee.

The big picture: The scrub turns a vetting record into a memory-holed liability, and Democrats are not hiding their preference for the matchup.

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• The NRSC backed Cornyn and published statements in July 2025 calling Paxton's treatment of his wife "repulsive and disgusting" and accusing him of cheating on taxes over mortgage filings.
• Both statements now redirect to 404 pages, Newsweek confirmed.
• Texas Democrats have called Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America."

Why it matters: A committee that erases findings when politics shift tells voters its candidate research is provisional.

• The deleted statement quoted NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez saying "Ken Paxton's betrayals of the public trust just keep coming."
• Cook Political Report downgraded the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican minutes after the call.
• Kalshi traders now price Paxton at 55% to hold the seat.

Driving the news: Paxton won the runoff by more than 25 points after a Trump endorsement a week before Election Day, becoming the first primary challenger to oust a Texas Republican senator since 1970.

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• Paxton carried 63.4% of nearly 903,000 votes with 230 of 254 counties reporting.
• The NRSC's Tuesday statement did not name Paxton or Cornyn, only attacking Democratic nominee James Talarico.
• Sen. Tim Scott, current NRSC chair, was among those who endorsed Cornyn.

What they're saying:

• Joanna Rodriguez, NRSC (July 2025, since deleted) — "A lot of people who trust Ken Paxton get lied to, so it isn't shocking to learn he is also cheating on his taxes."
• James Talarico, Democratic nominee — "Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America. He embodies the broken system we're running against."
• Jon Taylor, UT San Antonio political scientist — "Paxton, for all his baggage, including an impeachment, somehow got through this thing."

Yes, but: The NRSC's scrub is the harder behavior to defend.

• The committee did not retract its findings or explain why they were wrong. It made them disappear.
• The deleted statements cited AP reporting that Paxton listed three properties as primary residences, a claim unchanged by the primary outcome.
• Majority Leader John Thune and Scott both backed Cornyn and must now work alongside the nominee they spent resources opposing.

Between the lines: Democrats want this matchup badly enough that their celebration is doing the NRSC's old work, naming Paxton's baggage so the GOP doesn't have to. Both sides bet voters won't punish institutional dishonesty if their tribe wins the seat.

• A UT/Texas Politics Project April poll had Talarico beating Paxton by 8 points, with only 63% of Republicans backing their nominee.
• A Paxton win validates Trump's primary muscle; a Talarico win validates letting the other party nominate its weakest general candidate.
• Neither party has an incentive to discuss what gets erased when a nominee becomes inconvenient.

What's next:

• Paxton faces Talarico in November with the seat newly competitive per Cook.
• NRSC must decide whether to spend on Texas defense, draining resources from other battlegrounds.
• The pending divorce, $6.6 million whistleblower judgment, and 2023 impeachment remain on the table for Democratic ads.

If a party erases its own published findings the moment voters pick the candidate it warned about — what part of any other vetting should voters still trust?

Sources

This report was compiled using reporting from The Hill, Newsweek, The Washington Post, The Texas Tribune, Houston Public Media, NPR, ABC News, the Texas Politics Project, and Kalshi

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