The Brief:

  • New Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points, surprising given the state's Republican leanings.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 3% support, despite endorsing Trump; other candidates combine for less than 2%.
  • Selzer & Co.'s accurate polling history adds credibility to their findings as Election Day nears.

In a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, a state that typically leans Republican. With just three days left until the 2024 presidential election, a new poll reveals Harris ahead by three percentage points. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows her at 47% compared to Trump's 44%, a shift from previous polls where Trump was in the lead.

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This latest poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., included responses from 808 likely voters in Iowa. It comes as a shock to many, considering Iowa's historical voting patterns and a previous September poll that had Trump leading by four points. The change suggests a significant swing in voter sentiment as the election draws to a close.

Adding to the mix, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., despite suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump, has garnered 3% of the vote according to the same poll. Other candidates like Libertarian Chase Oliver and various write-ins account for less than 2% combined.

The accuracy of polls is always subject to debate, and the Trump campaign has quickly dismissed these results in favor of another poll by Emerson College which shows Trump with a substantial lead over Harris. However, Selzer & Co.'s reputation for precision—evidenced by their accurate prediction of the 2020 election margin in Iowa—adds weight to their findings.

As Election Day approaches, all eyes are on Iowa voters who could play a pivotal role in determining the next president of the United States. This unexpected development underscores the unpredictable nature of political races and signals what could be an exceptionally close contest nationwide.

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