• China controls 90% of rare earth processing, materials essential for fighter jets, submarines, missiles and advanced weapons
• Single F-35 requires 900 pounds of rare earths, Virginia-class submarine needs 9,200 pounds from Chinese-dominated supply chain
• Export restrictions could cripple US defense production within weeks, with 78% of Pentagon weapons systems vulnerable

WASHINGTON (TDR) — Here's a sobering reality: China could bring America's military to its knees without firing a single shot. The weapon? Rare earth minerals. These hidden elements power everything from fighter jets and submarines to missiles and drones. If Beijing pulled the plug tomorrow, Western stockpiles would run dry within weeks, and rebuilding them wouldn't be easy.

China's grip on the global rare earth supply chain represents one of the most glaring vulnerabilities in U.S. national security. The country controls 60% of mining and processes more than 90% of the world's rare earth elements, materials that cannot be substituted in most military applications.

Weapons systems at risk

The numbers are staggering. A single F-35 fighter jet incorporates more than 900 pounds of rare earth elements. An Arleigh Burke-class destroyer requires roughly 5,200 pounds. A Virginia-class submarine uses around 9,200 pounds of rare earth elements.

According to data analytics firm Govini, more than 80,000 distinct parts across 1,900 U.S. weapons systems depend on five critical minerals controlled by China: antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten and tellurium. That means approximately 78% of all Department of Defense weapons may be affected by Chinese export restrictions.

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The Navy leads in dependency, with over 91% of its systems containing at least one of these minerals. The Air Force follows at 85%, the Army at 70%, and the Marine Corps at 62%.

Beijing tightens the vise

In April, China imposed sweeping export controls on seven rare earth elements used in everything from laser-guided weapons to MRI machines: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. Companies must now secure government-issued licenses to export these materials, which Beijing justified citing "national security."

The restrictions followed similar bans issued in December 2024 on gallium, germanium and antimony, metals used in semiconductors, infrared optics and armor-piercing munitions.

"China's export controls on key medium and heavy rare earth elements pose significant risks to US national security, defense manufacturing, and high-tech industries," said Jamie Underwood from SFA-Oxford consultancy.

The strategic cost is already measurable. Prices for gallium-containing parts jumped 6% within three months of the bans. Antimony parts rose 4.5%, while all other DoD parts rose just 1.4%.

Processing chokehold

Even when minerals are mined in U.S. allied countries, they are often sent to China for refinement since China owns more than 90% of refining capacity, making true independence elusive.

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Nearly all antimony used in key platforms such as the F-16, Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and Minuteman III missile passes through China at some stage of processing. Only 19% is accessible without Chinese intermediaries.

China also maintains absolute dominance in manufacturing high-performance magnets, producing nearly 90% of rare earth permanent magnets globally. These magnets are essential for electric motors in guidance systems, actuators and propulsion systems across military platforms.

Wartime vulnerability

Unclassified war games indicate the U.S. military would struggle to sustain prolonged conflict without access to Chinese minerals. China is expanding its munitions production and acquiring advanced weapons systems five to six times faster than the United States.

"While China is preparing with a wartime mindset, the United States continues to operate under peacetime conditions," according to Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis.

In a potential conflict scenario, professor Jim Constantopoulos notes the U.S. would face shortfalls in 69 minerals, most used in weapons production.

Slow domestic response

Despite investing $450 million in Defense Production Act appropriations since 2020, building domestic processing and refining capacity remains painfully slow. Estimates suggest it will take 10 to 15 more years to establish independent supply chains.

In 2024, the U.S. mined 45 kilotons of rare earth ore, making it the world's second-biggest producer. But there is currently no heavy rare earth separation capacity in the United States.

President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic mineral projects, and the Pentagon struck a deal with MP Materials, the largest U.S. rare earth miner, including an equity stake and offtake agreement.

However, experts warn these efforts may be too little, too late. China has spent decades building its dominance while flooding markets with cheap minerals, deterring Western investment in alternatives.

Should the US prioritize rare earth independence even if it means significantly higher defense production costs?

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